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ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira
polymarket
kalshi

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira

Volume:
$483,343

Nicolas Oliveira

 - Kalshi

Nicolas Oliveira - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 6:55 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nicolas Oliveira

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$165,919
N/A
N/A
$87,106
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Juan Sebastian Osorio

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$314,308
N/A
N/A
$186,987
Settled
No
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

ITF Brasilia: Juan Sebastian Osorio vs Nicolas Oliveira Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group covers a professional tennis match between Juan Sebastian Osorio and Nicolas Oliveira at the ITF Men's M15 Brasilia tournament, originally scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. Markets span match winner, set winners, game totals across sets, and completion status, with resolution dependent on official ITF statistics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi differ on walkover/pre-match withdrawal scenarios for match winner markets. Polymarket explicitly resolves 50-50 on walkover, while Kalshi requires a ball to be played but does not explicitly address walkover outcomes.Hero tip: Traders holding Kalshi match winner positions should seek clarification on whether a walkover (no ball played) counts as a win for the advancing player. Polymarket traders can rely on the explicit 50-50 walkover rule. For all other completion scenarios (retirement, default, disqualification mid-match), both platforms align on awarding the match to the advancing player.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Match winner (Q1) resolves to the advancing player on mid-match retirement/default/disqualification, but resolves 50-50 on walkover (pre-match withdrawal). All other markets (set winners, game totals, completion status) resolve 50-50 if the match is not completed or is canceled/delayed beyond 7 days. Key Quote: 'If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Match winner resolves Yes if either player wins after a ball has been played in the M15 Brasilia Quarterfinal. No explicit walkover clause provided. The requirement 'after a ball has been played' suggests incompleteness without play, but does not clarify whether a walkover (advancing without play) resolves Yes or No. Key Quote: 'If Juan Sebastian Osorio wins the Osorio vs Oliveira professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Brasilia Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Sebastian Osorio and Nicolas Oliveira in the ITF Men Brasilia, originally scheduled for June 12, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Sebastian Osorio' if Juan Sebastian Osorio advances against Nicolas Oliveira. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Oliveira' if Nicolas Oliveira advances against Juan Sebastian Osorio. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event covers the Osorio vs Oliveira professional tennis match in the 2026 M15 Brasilia Quarterfinal. Resolution requires that a ball has been played to confirm the match occurred. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, all markets resolve to $0.50. If a player withdraws or forfeits after the match has started, that player's market resolves to No. If the match is postponed or delayed, markets remain open and close following the rescheduled match completion within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi continuously update prices based on new information, player form, and betting flow, often reflecting sharper or faster-moving consensus than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks must manage liability and margins; prediction markets aggregate distributed opinion. This market's current odds reflect live trader conviction, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line. For serious bettors, comparing these prices to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value or consensus shifts in real time.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different user bases, fee structures, and liquidity pools. Polymarket and Kalshi may weight recent news, injury reports, or head-to-head history differently, and their order books can move at different speeds depending on trader activity and capital allocation. Regulatory frameworks and contract design also vary—one platform may phrase the outcome more narrowly or broadly, subtly shifting how traders interpret the same event. These gaps typically narrow as resolution approaches, but they create arbitrage opportunities for alert traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.

Key catalysts include recent tournament results for both players, injury announcements, head-to-head record updates, and court surface performance history. Seeding changes, draw shifts, or opponent withdrawals can also reshape expectations. Live trading volume spikes often precede or follow major news—watch for sudden price swings on either platform as new information emerges. Player social media, coaching changes, or fitness updates in the days before the match typically drive late-stage repricing. Close monitoring of both venues will help you spot consensus shifts and time your trades strategically.