TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Italy vs. USA
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Italy vs USA?

Volume:
$829,635

USA

 - Kalshi

USA - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 6, 4:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

USA

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$181,330
N/A
N/A
$132,888
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Italy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$602,602
N/A
N/A
$352,507
Settled
No
polymarket

Italy vs. USA

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,703
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks which country will win the Italy vs. USA FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup game. Currently, the consensus probability favors Italy vs. USA at 40.0%. This forecast is an aggregation of views from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the official results reported by https://www.fiba.basketball/en/events/fiba-womens-basketball-world-cup-2026. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for September 6, 2026, as the outcome will determine resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines both Italy and USA winning as resolving to 'Yes', while Polymarket uses distinct outcomes for each team.Hero tip: Be mindful that Kalshi's 'Yes' outcome covers both possible winners. Focus on predicting the actual winning team, not just *a* winner.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Italy' if Italy wins, and 'USA' if the USA wins. "If the USA win, the market will resolve to "USA".
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either Italy or USA wins. "If Italy wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If USA wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA Women's World Cup game, scheduled for September 6 at 2:45PM ET: If the Italy win, the market will resolve to "Italy". If the USA win, the market will resolve to "USA". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the winner of the USA vs. Italy women's professional FIBA World Cup basketball game scheduled for September 6, 2026, at 2:45 PM EDT. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves according to the final official result. Should the game be cancelled or fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting an unbiased assessment of the circumstances. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Italy vs. USA match. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong probability for one outcome, with a combined volume of $829,635. This allows traders to compare probabilities and volume across different prediction markets. The dashboard provides a unified view of the market, showing how opinions are evolving as Polymarket and Kalshi traders react to news and information. This is a dynamic representation of collective forecasting for this event.

Prediction market odds, like those displayed for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks primarily aim to balance their books and profit from margins, while prediction markets allow participants to express their true beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially when significant information isn't yet reflected in sportsbook lines. However, both types of odds provide valuable perspectives for anyone interested in the Italy vs. USA match.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information access, leading to differing interpretations of the same event. Trading fees, market-making activity, and liquidity also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for price discovery – continuous trading on Polymarket versus discrete auctions on Kalshi – can result in temporary imbalances. These differences reflect the independent assessment of probabilities by each platform’s participants.