TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Italy vs. Serbia
polymarket
kalshi

Italy vs. Serbia

Volume:
$294,072

Serbia

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 31, 2026

Closed: Aug 31, 3:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Serbia

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$154,404
N/A
N/A
$83,280
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Serbia (-4.5)

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Italy

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$127,784
N/A
N/A
$61,831
Settled
No
polymarket

Italy vs. Serbia

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 175.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the men's professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between Italy and Serbia. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome, Spread: Serbia (-4.5), is 99.6%, drawing data from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution governed by the official FIBA basketball website. The second outcome, Italy vs. Serbia: O/U 175.5, holds a probability of 0.4%. Watch for the game scheduled to take place by the end of the betting period on August 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Settlement value mismatch between platforms: Polymarket uses three-way resolution (Italy/Serbia/Draw) while Kalshi uses binary Yes/No for any win outcomeHero tip: Avoid arbitrage positions between these markets as they resolve differently on win outcomes vs cancellations. Focus trades on Polymarket for full outcome coverage or Kalshi for binary win confirmation only.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Italy" if Italy wins, "Serbia" if Serbia wins, 50-50 if canceled entirely with no make-up game. Result determined by final score including overtime.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either Italy or Serbia wins the game, regardless of which team wins. Does not distinguish between the two teams.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Europe game, scheduled for August 31 at 6:00AM ET: If the Italy win, the market will resolve to "Italy". If the Serbia win, the market will resolve to "Serbia". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Markets resolve based on the winning team in the Serbia vs Italy men’s professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for August 31, 2026, at 1:30 PM EDT. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve according to the official final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not associated with the governing league, and all trademarks are the property of their respective owners.