TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 6, 12:51 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Samir Hamza Reguig will win his tennis match against Maxim Zhukov in Istanbul 3, Turkiye, Qualifying. Currently, Polymarket gives a 99.9% probability to Samir Hamza Reguig vs Maxim Zhukov winning, while the second outcome, Istanbul 3, Turkiye, Qualifying: Completed Match: Samir Hamza Reguig vs Maxim Zhukov, is at 0.1%. The resolution source for this market is the official ATP Tour website at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Keep an eye on the match outcome as originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 3:00AM ET, as this will determine the market’s resolution.
This market refers to the tennis match between Samir Hamza Reguig and Maxim Zhukov in the Istanbul 3, Turkiye, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Samir Hamza Reguig' if Samir Hamza Reguig advances against Maxim Zhukov. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Zhukov' if Maxim Zhukov advances against Samir Hamza Reguig. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a margin for profit, which can skew the odds, while this market aims for a more accurate representation of true probabilities based on traders’ collective assessment. However, initial odds on Polymarket may align closely with sportsbook offerings, especially before significant trading volume occurs. As more information becomes available and more traders participate, the odds in this market may diverge from those found at traditional sportsbooks, offering a potentially different perspective on the likely outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders exchange shares, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. Higher demand for a particular outcome drives up its share price, indicating increased confidence in that result. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price, suggesting waning confidence. This dynamic process ensures that the market price remains a real-time indicator of expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result declared by the boxing commission overseeing the Istanbul 3 match. The outcome will be determined by which fighter is declared the winner of the bout, according to the official rules and regulations of the competition. Any disputes or challenges to the official result will be considered according to Polymarket’s established procedures, but the initial commission ruling will serve as the primary basis for resolution.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-match interviews expressing confidence or concern could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the fight's venue or scheduling could also introduce volatility. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, might also play a role, though the market’s price will ultimately be determined by trading on Polymarket. Any significant developments related to either Samir Hamza Reguig or Maxim Zhukov are likely to be reflected in the market price.