TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 7, 9:02 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Harold Mayot and Cezar Cretu in the Istanbul 3, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Harold Mayot' if Harold Mayot advances against Cezar Cretu. This market will resolve to 'Cezar Cretu' if Cezar Cretu advances against Harold Mayot. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Harold Mayot and Cezar Cretu in the Istanbul 3, originally scheduled for September 7, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Harold Mayot' if Harold Mayot advances against Cezar Cretu. This market will resolve to 'Cezar Cretu' if Cezar Cretu advances against Harold Mayot. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of forecasters. This can lead to divergences, especially when there’s strong sentiment or information asymmetry. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional polls or expert opinions, but comparing them directly to sportsbook odds requires considering the different incentives and information sources at play. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective forecast. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the volume, also influence price discovery. Currently, the market is driven by the expectations of those actively trading shares on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mayot vs Cretu match, as reported by official tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be paid out according to the final share price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their shares.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market leading up to Sep 14, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or significant shifts in expert analysis could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving either player could also affect perceptions of their form and ability. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in outlook, causing the market to react quickly. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price movements.