TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between Israel and Ireland, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. These thresholds vary depending on which team wins and by how many goals.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Israel or Ireland wins the professional UEFA Nations League soccer match originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are defined, each corresponding to a specific winning margin: Israel winning by more than 2.5 goals, Israel winning by more than 1.5 goals, Ireland winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Ireland winning by more than 2.5 goals. The match result is determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. All resolutions are independent of any official affiliations between the platform and the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house biases or public perception. Sportsbooks typically set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market’s prices are determined solely by supply and demand. If a significant disparity exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it could indicate a perceived mispricing or differing expectations about the Israel vs Ireland match. It’s important to consider both sources when forming your own assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust to new information or changing sentiment regarding the Israel vs Ireland match. Traders are essentially betting against each other, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Israel vs Ireland match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final score of the match, determining the winning side and the margin of victory. The platform will verify the result against official sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Sep 28, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or significant shifts in team form could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also contribute to price movements. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders or institutions could signal a change in expectations about the Israel vs Ireland match, causing the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market’s outlook.