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Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry: Round of Victory
kalshi

What is the result of Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry?

Volume:
$1,911,311

Decision / Draw / No Contest

 - Kalshi

Decision / Draw / No Contest - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

Closed: Aug 16, 12:24 AM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Decision / Draw / No Contest

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,049
N/A
N/A
$35,560
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Islam Makhachev to win in Round 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$296,052
N/A
N/A
$282,006
Settled
No
kalshi

Islam Makhachev to win in Round 4

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$251,196
N/A
N/A
$235,141
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 3

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$211,922
N/A
N/A
$206,978
Settled
No
kalshi

Islam Makhachev to win in Round 2

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$205,198
N/A
N/A
$190,706
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 4

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$195,297
N/A
N/A
$187,056
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$166,286
N/A
N/A
$154,917
Settled
No
kalshi

Islam Makhachev to win in Round 5

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$157,513
N/A
N/A
$148,942
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$149,782
N/A
N/A
$147,790
Settled
No
kalshi

Islam Makhachev to win in Round 1

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$129,982
N/A
N/A
$120,787
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry to win in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$109,035
N/A
N/A
$106,250
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Islam Makhachev versus Ian Machado Garry will end in a decision, draw, or no contest, or if Islam Makhachev will win in Round 1 in their scheduled fight on August 15, 2026. On Kalshi, the current probability that either competitor wins by decision or the fight results in a draw/no contest is 51.0%, while the probability that Islam Makhachev wins in Round 1 is 12.0%. The market resolves based on official fight results, with the outcome determined by August 16, 2026, following the event's conclusion.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple possible resolutions for the Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry fight scheduled for August 15, 2026. Markets resolve to Yes if either fighter wins by knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), submission, or disqualification within any of the five scheduled rounds. Specifically, separate markets exist for each fighter winning in rounds 1 through 5 via these methods. Additionally, a single market resolves to Yes if the fight concludes by decision, draw, or no contest—including technical decisions—which are not counted as round victories. All markets are independent, meaning a fighter securing a round victory does not affect other markets. The event operates under standard combat sports rules, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming affiliation with the governing league or ownership of related trademarks.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the Makhachev vs. Garry round market. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of each round ending the fight, with current volume at $1,911,311 and 24-hour volume at $1,827,155. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity as the event approaches.

This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the officially recorded round in which the fight concludes, whether by knockout, submission, or other methods, and will be matched against the market’s defined round-based outcomes.

Key signals such as pre-fight media appearances, training updates, injury reports, and shifting analyst forecasts could move this market. Traders will react to any development that impacts the perceived aggression, stamina, or strategy of the fighters, potentially altering expectations for when the fight might end. As the event draws closer, betting volume and price swings often increase in response to breaking news or shifting crowd sentiment.