TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry: Method of Victory
kalshi

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry: Method of Victory

Volume:
$11,355,723

Islam Makhachev by Decision

 - Kalshi

Islam Makhachev by Decision - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

Closed: Aug 16, 12:24 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Islam Makhachev by Decision

View
100%
62%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,391,372
N/A
N/A
$1,014,759
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Islam Makhachev by Submission

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,679,418
N/A
N/A
$2,406,109
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry by KO/TKO/DQ

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,117,528
N/A
N/A
$1,930,439
Settled
No
kalshi

Islam Makhachev by KO/TKO/DQ

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,007,410
N/A
N/A
$1,852,476
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry by Submission

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,354,806
N/A
N/A
$1,264,692
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Machado Garry by Decision

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,082,904
N/A
N/A
$867,986
Settled
No
kalshi

Draw/No Contest

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$722,286
N/A
N/A
$692,232
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks how Islam Makhachev will win his upcoming mixed martial arts fight against Ian Machado Garry. On Kalshi, the current probability that Makhachev will win by Submission stands at 35.0%, while the probability of him winning by Decision is 34.0%. The outcome will be resolved based on the official fight result. The key date to watch is August 16, 2026, the scheduled resolution date following the bout originally set for August 15, 2026.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the specific method by which either Islam Makhachev or Ian Machado Garry wins the bout, or if the fight ends in a draw or no contest. If Makhachev secures a victory via KO/TKO/DQ, Submission, or Decision, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Machado Garry wins by KO/TKO/DQ, Submission, or Decision, that market resolves to Yes. Should the fight conclude without a clear winner—either through a draw or no contest—the Draw/No Contest market resolves to Yes. Each outcome is evaluated independently, and only the designated market for the actual result will resolve to Yes, with all others resolving to No. The event is scheduled for August 15, 2026, and all determinations are based solely on the official result of the contest.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Makhachev vs Garry method of victory market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $10,779,252. It shows how traders on this single venue are pricing the likelihood of each possible method of victory, with total volume at $11,355,723. This gives you a live view of market sentiment as the fight approaches.

This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official fight record, showing how Makhachev and Garry’s bout concludes — whether by knockout, submission, decision, or other confirmed method. No external criteria or platforms influence this process.

Key signals include pre-fight media appearances, training updates, and injury reports for either fighter, all of which can shift perceptions of likely victory methods. Betting trends on Kalshi may also react to analyst predictions or crowd sentiment surges. Any sudden change in fight conditions or strategy discussions could cause rapid price adjustments before Aug 16, 2026.