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IR Iran vs. New Zealand - First Team to Score
polymarket
kalshi

IR Iran vs. New Zealand - First Team to Score

Volume:
$190,549

New Zealand

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 9:21 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

New Zealand

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,798
N/A
N/A
$19,860
Settled
Yes
polymarket

New Zealand

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

IR Iran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59,150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

IR Iran

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,591
N/A
N/A
$48,952
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,137
N/A
N/A
$26,516
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the first team to score in the IR Iran vs. New Zealand FIFA World Cup match scheduled for June 15, 2026. Markets resolve based on which team (if any) scores the first goal during the match, with three possible outcomes: IR Iran, New Zealand, or Neither.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket limits resolution to 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, while Kalshi includes extra time periods. This creates a scope divergence that only manifests if the match reaches extra time.Hero tip: Understand your platform's time scope before trading. On Polymarket, a goal in extra time triggers Neither. On Kalshi, it counts toward the first-scorer outcome. If you expect extra time, price accordingly or avoid exposure near the 90-minute boundary.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on first goal within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalty shootouts explicitly excluded. Source: Official statistics from governing body or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of conclusion.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on first goal during entire game including regulation, stoppage, and any extra time periods. No explicit time limit stated; entire match duration is in scope.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between IR Iran and New Zealand, scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "IR Iran" if IR Iran are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "New Zealand" if New Zealand are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on which team records the first goal during the entire Iran vs New Zealand FIFA World Cup match originally scheduled for June 15, 2026, including regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. If the first goal is an own goal, resolution is based on the team awarded the goal. If no goal is scored throughout the entire match, the "No Goal" outcome resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the IR Iran vs. New Zealand first-goal market across Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays the current implied probability that IR Iran scores before New Zealand, tracks cumulative trading volume across both venues, and shows how consensus has shifted over time. You can compare live odds between platforms, monitor order-book depth, and see which outcome commands stronger conviction among traders. This cross-platform view reveals market consensus while highlighting where professional and retail traders diverge on match expectations.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi typically reflect sharper, more dynamic odds than traditional sportsbooks because traders can enter and exit positions continuously and face lower juice or fees. Sportsbooks build in margin and adjust lines more slowly to manage liability. For this match, prediction-market odds on first-goal outcomes tend to move faster in response to team news, lineup changes, or betting flow. Comparing the two reveals whether the broader market views IR Iran's scoring chances differently than bookmakers, often indicating where value may exist or where consensus is strongest.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences stem from distinct user bases, fee structures, and liquidity pools. Polymarket attracts larger volumes and may reflect faster price discovery, while Kalshi serves a different trader demographic with its own risk appetite and information set. Regulatory constraints, settlement timelines, and order-flow patterns also vary between venues. Additionally, one platform may see concentrated betting on IR Iran while the other remains more balanced, creating temporary mispricings. These gaps typically narrow as sophisticated traders arbitrage between markets, but they persist when liquidity is thin or when each platform's community holds genuinely different views on match outcomes.

Key catalysts include confirmed team lineups and starting XI announcements, which reveal attacking depth and defensive stability. Injury updates to key strikers or defenders shift scoring probabilities significantly. Pre-match analysis, recent form, and head-to-head records influence trader conviction. Weather conditions and pitch state on match day can favor attacking or defensive play. Betting flow and sharp money entering either side can trigger rapid repricing. Tactical previews from respected analysts may sway sentiment. As kickoff approaches, final odds movements often reflect late-arriving information and last-minute position adjustments by large traders.