TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 8:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Indy Eleven and Miami, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Indy Eleven and Miami in their scheduled USL Championship game on September 26, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Indy Eleven winning by more than 2.5 goals, Indy Eleven winning by more than 1.5 goals, Miami winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Miami winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each outcome corresponds to a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if the specified condition is met. All resolutions exclude results from extra time or penalty shootouts. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public opinion shifts. Analyzing these differences can be valuable, but remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither guarantees accuracy. Keep in mind that this market's pricing is solely determined by trading activity on Kalshi.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Indy Eleven vs Miami spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts indicating a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its assessment of the likely outcome. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score difference between the Indy Eleven and Miami is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, as reported by official sources. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. The market will close prior to this date, and no further trading will be permitted once the game has begun.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 27, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Indy Eleven or Miami could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to favor one team's playing style, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or coaching decisions could also lead to price movements. Overall, any information that alters perceptions of the teams' relative strengths will likely be reflected in the market price on Kalshi.