TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 9, 7:33 PM EST
Kalshi
Betting interest will focus on the margin of victory in this contest, particularly whether Indy Eleven secures a dominant win or if Hartford Athletic achieves a decisive upset. The spread markets test predictions about both teams' performance gaps.
These spread markets resolve based on the goal differential if either team wins the August 9, 2026 USL Championship match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The 'Indy Eleven wins by more than X.5 goals' markets pay 'Yes' only if Indy Eleven wins by at least X+1 goals. Conversely, 'Hartford Athletic wins by more than Y.5 goals' requires Hartford to win by at least Y+1 goals. If either team fails to meet its specified margin, or if the match ends in a draw, all relevant markets resolve as 'No'. The outcomes hinge purely on the winning margin, not the total goals scored.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook than traditional sportsbook lines, incorporating real-time trader sentiment and detailed analysis. While sportsbooks set their lines based on broader public betting trends and sharp money, prediction markets enable tighter, more responsive pricing. Traders can react quickly to new information, meaning this market may diverge from sportsbook spreads depending on emerging insights or shifts in team performance.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent possible outcomes. The current probability reflects the balance of buy and sell orders, with liquidity indicated by the volume of $3,201. As the match approaches, any significant news about player injuries, coaching decisions, or recent performance updates can rapidly shift this market's pricing on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Aug 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread from the played match will be compared against trader predictions to determine which side of the market was correct. Timing depends on when official results are published and confirmed for settlement.
Injuries to key players, weather conditions affecting the game, and tactical changes by coaches can all shift trader expectations and move this market. High-profile performances or controversies leading up to the match may also cause rapid price adjustments. As the event nears, any new information that changes the perceived likelihood of a home or away advantage will influence odds on Kalshi.