TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 13, 9:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Indianapolis or New England specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets determine whether New England or Indianapolis wins the third quarter of their Pro Football game by exceeding specific point differentials. All outcomes are evaluated solely based on points scored during the third quarter of play. Markets are structured with varying thresholds — from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points — for both teams, meaning a 'Yes' resolution occurs only if the specified team wins that quarter by more than the stated margin. No points from other quarters influence these resolutions, and all markets operate independently, each requiring its own distinct point differential to be met.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced view of short-term momentum compared to traditional sportsbook lines, which usually focus on full-game outcomes. While sportsbooks may set a broader spread, traders in this market zero in on third-quarter performance specifically. That can lead to tighter or shifting lines based on in-game events, player updates, and tactical adjustments that might not fully influence the full-game market.
This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread is calculated using official scoring data from the game’s third quarter, and the result is settled automatically once that information is widely available and immutable.
Injuries, coaching strategies, and key player performance updates can all shift this market as the game approaches. Quarterback changes, defensive adjustments, or even weather conditions that affect the third quarter could cause rapid price swings. Traders will also watch pre-game analyst commentary and any line movements on Kalshi that reflect new information about early-game momentum or tactical decisions.