TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
India vs. Lebanon
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win India vs Lebanon?

Volume:
$65,716

Lebanon

 - Kalshi

Lebanon - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 5, 12:50 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Lebanon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,772
N/A
N/A
$13,595
Settled
Yes
kalshi

India

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$41,726
N/A
N/A
$27,204
Settled
No
polymarket

India vs. Lebanon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,218
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers the outcome of a FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between India and Lebanon scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM EDT. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking whether India or Lebanon wins this professional matchup.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria contains a logical contradiction: both India winning and Lebanon winning trigger Yes resolution, making the binary market unable to differentiate outcomes. This is a data integrity failure that renders Kalshi's market fundamentally unresolvable as a predictive instrument.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi's version. The market will resolve Yes regardless of which team wins, eliminating all predictive value. Use Polymarket exclusively, which has proper mutually exclusive resolution states (India vs Lebanon) and clear edge-case handling.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary outcome structure with clear mutual exclusivity: resolves to India if India wins, Lebanon if Lebanon wins. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50. Resolution based on final score including overtime.
  • Kalshi: Logical contradiction: market resolves to Yes if India wins AND also resolves to Yes if Lebanon wins, creating an impossible binary where both outcomes map to the same state. No edge-case handling specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Asia game, scheduled for July 5 at 11:00AM ET: If the India win, the market will resolve to "India". If the Lebanon win, the market will resolve to "Lebanon". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Lebanon vs India professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two weeks of the original date. Should the game be cancelled and not played, or rescheduled beyond two weeks from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price for each team in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. This means prices reflect live consensus among traders rather than a bookmaker's margin. Sportsbooks typically build in a 4–5% edge, while prediction markets often tighten that spread through competition. For this market, comparing the current odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal value opportunities, though prediction market prices may lag slightly behind sharp sportsbook moves during breaking news.

Team roster announcements, injury updates, and weather forecasts can all shift odds significantly. Recent form, head-to-head records, and venue conditions are key drivers traders monitor. Breaking news about player availability or tactical changes often triggers sharp repricing. Media coverage and expert commentary may also influence retail trader sentiment. Watch for late-breaking developments in the 48 hours before the match, as these typically generate the largest market swings and create opportunities for informed traders.