TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC?

Volume:
$718,833

Reg Time: Independ. Santa Fe

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 24, 2026

Closed: Jul 23, 10:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Reg Time: Independ. Santa Fe

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$154,909
N/A
N/A
$99,279
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Independiente Santa Fe

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,323
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Reg Time: Caracas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$380,619
N/A
N/A
$265,940
Settled
No
polymarket

Caracas FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Reg Time: Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$134,736
N/A
N/A
$110,526
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the winner of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana soccer match between Independiente Santa Fe and Caracas FC. The aggregated consensus probability shows Independiente Santa Fe at 86.0%, with Caracas FC at 14.0%, drawing data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and resolution governed by CONMEBOL Sudamericana rules. The final outcome will be determined by the match result within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Watch the July 23, 2026 match as the key catalyst for resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets are logically tautological (all three resolve Yes on any outcome), while Polymarket uses standard binary structure. Additionally, Polymarket's draw market has asymmetric cancellation logic (resolves Yes if canceled, while win markets resolve No).Hero tip: Polymarket markets are tradeable and follow standard soccer betting logic. Kalshi's three markets are fundamentally unresolvable as designed - they will all settle Yes regardless of the match result, making them unsuitable for price discovery. Focus trading activity on Polymarket only.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three independent binary markets covering Santa Fe Win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No), and Caracas Win (Yes/No). Exactly one resolves Yes based on 90-minute result. Cancellation with no makeup resolves Santa Fe and Caracas markets to No, but Draw market to Yes. Primary source: CONMEBOL official statistics within 2 hours of conclusion, or credible consensus if delayed.
  • Kalshi: Three markets each resolving Yes if their respective outcome occurs: Market 1 (Santa Fe wins), Market 2 (Caracas wins), Market 3 (Tie). Logically, all three markets will resolve Yes simultaneously on any match outcome, creating a tautological contradiction. No cancellation clause specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game, scheduled for Thursday, July 23, 2026 between Independiente Santa Fe and Caracas FC.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the final result of the Independ. Santa Fe vs Caracas professional CONMEBOL Sudamericana soccer game originally scheduled for July 23, 2026, evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). Each possible outcome—an Independ. Santa Fe victory, a Caracas victory, or a tie—resolves its corresponding market to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

The Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC match dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor real-time odds on the outcome of this fixture. Traders on both venues price their views of which team will prevail, and the dashboard surfaces consensus probability alongside individual platform quotes. This cross-venue view helps you spot where the broader market leans and identify any pricing gaps between venues. Whether you're researching team form, injury news, or simply tracking sentiment, this market centralizes the prediction data in one place.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes differently. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in margin; prediction markets reflect live trader consensus, updating continuously as new information arrives. Prediction markets often react faster to breaking news—team injuries, lineup changes, or weather—since thousands of independent traders adjust positions in real time. Sportsbook odds may lag or include wider margins. For this match, comparing prediction market prices to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities or confirm consensus, though remember that prediction markets carry their own liquidity and participant-base dynamics.

Key catalysts include team lineups and injury announcements, which can shift perceived win probability significantly. Recent form, head-to-head records, and any roster changes will influence trader positioning. Weather conditions on match day, referee assignments, and late-breaking tactical news can also trigger repricing. Betting volume and sharp money flowing into one side may signal informed conviction, moving odds in response. Social media sentiment and expert commentary can sway retail traders. Monitor official team communications and sports news outlets for updates that might reshape expectations before kickoff.