TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points will be scored by both teams combined in the final quarter of a football game. Bettors predict whether the total points will exceed certain thresholds, offering varying levels of difficulty and potential payout based on the chosen threshold.
These markets resolve based on the total points scored by both the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs during the 4th quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined points exceed that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Thresholds range from 3.5 to 24.5 points, allowing bettors to choose their level of risk and potential return. All markets share the same secondary rule, ensuring only points scored during regulation 4th quarter play are counted, with overtime points explicitly excluded from consideration.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market incorporates insights from many individuals. While sportsbooks may initially focus on team statistics and expert analysis, this market can quickly incorporate new information, such as late-breaking injury reports or changes in weather conditions. It's common to see differences emerge, as each approach has its strengths and weaknesses in forecasting the final score of the 4th quarter.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the eventual result. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential total points scored in the 4th quarter of the Colts-Chiefs game. This dynamic pricing helps to reveal the aggregated expectations of the crowd.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the total points scored in the 4th quarter of the Colts versus Chiefs game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the basis for verifying the final score. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total points will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to game day. Any significant news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either the Colts or the Chiefs would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting passing or kicking games, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected shifts in public opinion, as reflected in betting trends or media coverage, could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.