TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 30, 5:09 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Ilves Tampere and UMF Stjarnan, scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ilves Tampere" if Ilves Tampere are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "UMF Stjarnan" if UMF Stjarnan are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between Ilves Tampere and UMF Stjarnan, scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ilves Tampere" if Ilves Tampere are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "UMF Stjarnan" if UMF Stjarnan are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds because they aggregate real-time trader sentiment rather than relying solely on bookmaker models. Sportsbooks typically adjust lines to balance liability and lock in profit margins, whereas this market is driven by supply and demand from individual traders. Both reflect probability estimates, but prediction markets can react faster to breaking news and offer different risk-reward profiles. Comparing the two can reveal where public perception and professional oddsmakers diverge on the outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has a price between 0 and 1, where higher prices reflect greater perceived likelihood. Traders buy and sell shares of each outcome, and the collective trading activity determines the final odds. The more volume flowing into one outcome, the higher its price climbs, creating a dynamic equilibrium that reflects the crowd's best estimate of which team scores first.
This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, once the match concludes and the first goal is verified. The outcome is determined by which team scores the opening goal during regulation play. Resolution is confirmed against credible public sources reporting the match result. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. Early resolution may occur if one team is mathematically eliminated or if the match is abandoned under league rules.
Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to star forwards or defensive players, which can shift scoring probability significantly. Lineup announcements and tactical changes revealed closer to kickoff often trigger sharp price movements. Recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage updates also influence trader positioning. Weather conditions and pitch quality reported on match day can affect play style and early-game dynamics. As the start time approaches, late money and final betting surges typically drive the most volatile price swings in this market.