TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 3:44 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of the fourth quarter in an upcoming college football game between Illinois and Ohio State. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either team during that quarter for the market to resolve positively.
The markets resolve based on the point differential achieved by either Illinois or Ohio State exclusively during the fourth quarter of their college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the winning team exceeds its respective threshold. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific threshold they selected.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and information aggregation. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market allows individuals to trade on their own predictions, potentially leading to a more accurate forecast as new information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise from factors like differing risk assessments, biases in sportsbook modeling, or the influence of large bettors. It's common to see this market converge towards the 'true' probability as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the 4th quarter of the Illinois vs Ohio State game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Specifically, the market will settle based on the actual point difference between the two teams at the end of the 4th quarter, as reported by official game statistics. This allows for a clear and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries, coaching changes, or team performance could shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's style of play, could also have an impact. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi or shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can cause notable price movements. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to the game.