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Kalshi:
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Closed: Sep 26, 1:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will lead at the end of the second quarter in an upcoming college football game. It provides a way to speculate on the in-game momentum and performance of the teams during a specific segment of play.
The market resolves based on which team scores more points in the second quarter of the Illinois vs Ohio State college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026. If Ohio State scores more points in the second quarter, the 'Ohio St. wins 2nd Quarter' market resolves to Yes. If Illinois scores more points in the second quarter, the 'Illinois wins 2nd Quarter' market resolves to Yes. If both teams score the same number of points in the second quarter, the 'Tie 2nd Quarter' market resolves to Yes. For all markets, only points scored during the second quarter count. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell based on their beliefs. If a significant number of people believe one team is more likely to win, the odds will shift accordingly, potentially offering a different perspective than what’s available at sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of money has been traded in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, either Illinois or Ohio State winning the 2nd Quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the likely winner. The market depth shows the available buy and sell orders at different price points, illustrating the current demand and supply for each outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning team of the 2nd Quarter will be determined based on the official game results. The platform will then verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders holding contracts for the winning team will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for the losing team will not. The exact payout amount depends on the price of the contract at the time of resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Illinois or Ohio State team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they are expected to impact the game, could also shift the odds. Additionally, public sentiment and analysis from sports experts could influence trader behavior. Finally, any major shifts in betting patterns at sportsbooks might also be reflected in this market, as traders react to the broader information landscape.