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406,019

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2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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VS.

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61%

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Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana
polymarket
kalshi

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana

Volume:
$396,073

Mary Stoiana

 - Kalshi

Mary Stoiana - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:45 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Mary Stoiana

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$155,943
N/A
N/A
$37,080
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lulu Sun

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$177,292
N/A
N/A
$64,880
Settled
No
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62,205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group covers a professional tennis match between Lulu Sun and Mary Stoiana at the 2026 WTA 125K Ilkley tournament, originally scheduled for June 10, 2026. Markets span match winner, set outcomes, game totals, and completion status across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines granular edge cases (walkovers, retirements, 7-day delays) with explicit 50-50 outcomes, while Kalshi uses a minimal 'ball played' threshold without specifying handling of forfeits, delays, or incomplete matches.Hero tip: Traders should prioritize Polymarket's detailed rules for risk management. On Kalshi, request clarification on whether a mid-match retirement after play begins satisfies the 'ball played' condition or if a winner must be formally determined. Always cross-reference final outcomes against official WTA Challenger statistics.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Comprehensive edge-case framework. Match winner resolves to advancing player if opponent retires/defaults mid-match; resolves 50-50 for walkovers (pre-match withdrawal), cancellations, ties, or delays beyond 7 days without a winner. Completed match market requires full play; any forfeit = No. Set/game totals resolve 50-50 if first set incomplete or match delayed beyond 7 days. Key quote: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.' vs. 'If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Minimal binary framework. Market resolves Yes if either player wins the match after a ball has been played. No explicit guidance on walkovers, retirements, delays, or incomplete matches. Key quote: 'If Mary Stoiana wins the Sun vs Stoiana professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA 125K Ilkley Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Lulu Sun and Mary Stoiana in the Ilkley, originally scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lulu Sun' if Lulu Sun advances against Mary Stoiana. This market will resolve to 'Mary Stoiana' if Mary Stoiana advances against Lulu Sun. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event covers the professional tennis match between Lulu Sun and Mary Stoiana in the 2026 WTA 125K Ilkley Round of 16. Resolution requires that a ball has been played in the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes, provided the rescheduling occurs within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than traditional sportsbook models. Instead of fixed odds set by oddsmakers, traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in each outcome, and the market price emerges from supply and demand. This can lead to sharper or slower-moving lines depending on liquidity and information flow. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks reveals whether professional bettors and casual traders are aligned or diverging on the match outcome.

Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market mechanics, fee structures, and user bases, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in liquidity depth, geographic trader concentration, and platform-specific incentives mean one venue may react faster to new information than the other. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but friction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent prices from converging instantly, especially in lower-volume or niche sports markets.

Player form, recent tournament results, head-to-head history, and injury reports are key catalysts that can shift odds before the match begins. Court surface preference, weather conditions on match day, and seeding dynamics may also influence trader positioning. Late-breaking news—such as a player withdrawal, coaching change, or unexpected upset in an earlier round—can trigger sharp repricing. Social media sentiment and expert commentary can amplify or dampen momentum, especially as the fixture draws closer.