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$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley
polymarket
kalshi

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley

Volume:
$1,316,219

Jacob Fearnley

 - Kalshi

Jacob Fearnley - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 1:10 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jacob Fearnley

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$515,924
N/A
N/A
$222,775
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Keegan Smith

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$636,013
N/A
N/A
$274,290
Settled
No
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$164,098
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This event group tracks the total number of games in a professional tennis match between Keegan Smith and Jacob Fearnley at the 2026 ATP Challenger in Ilkley. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 100.0% probability for the over/under 22.5 games market. Resolution will be determined by the official ATP Tour scoring records at atptour.com. Watch for the match completion on June 18, 2026, the resolution deadline by which final game totals must be confirmed and settled.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides comprehensive edge-case handling (walkovers, retirements, cancellations, delays) with explicit 50-50 fallbacks. Kalshi's binary market lacks explicit guidance on these scenarios, creating ambiguity in non-standard completion outcomes.Hero tip: For Polymarket markets, resolution is deterministic across all edge cases. For Kalshi, assume a ball-played confirmation triggers Yes if either player wins, but verify with Kalshi support if a walkover or mid-match retirement occurs. Polymarket's Completed Match market (No on any forfeit) and Kalshi's binary (Yes after ball played) may diverge in these scenarios.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: 16 markets with granular resolution logic. Match winner resolves to advancing player on retirement/default mid-match; resolves 50-50 on walkover (pre-match withdrawal), cancellation, tie, or delay beyond 7 days. Completed Match market explicitly resolves No on any forfeit. Set and game markets resolve 50-50 if not completed. Primary source: ATP Tour official records or credible consensus. Quote: 'If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve No.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either player wins after a ball is played. No explicit handling of walkovers, retirements, cancellations, or delays. Primary source: implicit ATP Challenger official records. Quote: 'If Keegan Smith wins the Smith vs Fearnley professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Challenger Ilkley Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Keegan Smith and Jacob Fearnley in the Ilkley, originally scheduled for June 11, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keegan Smith' if Keegan Smith advances against Jacob Fearnley. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Keegan Smith. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that a ball has been played in the Smith vs Fearnley professional tennis match at the 2026 ATP Challenger Ilkley Round of 16. The market resolves to Yes for whichever player wins the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price per the rules. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on real-money trading, where participants buy and sell shares tied to match outcomes. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which set fixed odds and profit from the spread, prediction markets aggregate distributed beliefs through continuous price discovery. This can yield sharper, more responsive odds because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricing. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to major sportsbook lines often reveals which venue has priced the matchup more efficiently or where public perception lags behind informed trading.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, which naturally creates price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, user interface, and risk tolerance among participants can shift implied probabilities by several percentage points. Additionally, timing lags in information flow and differences in how each platform's community interprets match context mean prices may not sync instantly. Monitoring both venues helps identify temporary mispricings and understand which platform's traders are more confident in their assessment.

Key catalysts include recent tournament performance by both players, injury reports or fitness updates, head-to-head record analysis, and surface-specific form leading up to the match. Court conditions, weather forecasts, and betting-market sentiment from traditional sportsbooks can also shift trader conviction. Late-breaking news—such as lineup changes, coaching decisions, or unexpected player statements—often triggers sharp repricing. Monitoring player social media, official tournament communications, and sports news outlets will help you anticipate moves before they fully reflect in this market's odds.