TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Iceland vs. Estonia
kalshi
predict
polymarket

What is the result of Iceland vs. Estonia?

Volume:
$1,445,308

Tie

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Closed: Sep 26, 1:55 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$248,355
N/A
N/A
$116,982
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Iceland vs. Estonia)

View
100%
85%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26,757
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Draw

View
99%
82%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$13,642
$39,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

ISL

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$157
$67,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Iceland

View
0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$259,722
N/A
N/A
$161,878
Settled
No
polymarket

Iceland

View
0%
76%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$145,772
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

EST

View
1%
7%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$98
$21,002
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Estonia

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$543,810
N/A
N/A
$339,234
Settled
No
polymarket

Estonia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of a draw in the UEFA Nations League soccer match between Iceland and Estonia. Currently, the consensus probability of a draw is 100.0%. This forecast is an aggregation of views from Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the official result reported by https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/. Keep an eye on September 26, 2026, as this is the scheduled date for the match and will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation resolution differs between platforms. Polymarket explicitly resolves canceled games to 'No', while Kalshi does not address this scenario.Hero tip: Focus on markets where cancellation is explicitly addressed, as Kalshi's resolution in the event of cancellation is unclear.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'No' if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. Uses a hierarchy of official sources, Flashscore, and Sofascore for data. Resolution within 90 minutes + stoppage time.
  • Kalshi: Determines the winner based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Does not explicitly state how a canceled game will be resolved.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 between Iceland and Estonia.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the result of the Iceland vs Estonia UEFA Nations League soccer game scheduled for Sep 26, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A win for Iceland resolves the 'Iceland' market to Yes; a win for Estonia resolves the 'Estonia' market to Yes; a tie resolves the 'Tie' market to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away from the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 between Iceland and Estonia.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, whereas this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert opinion. While sportsbooks may incorporate factors like team news and injuries, prediction markets can quickly adjust to new information as it becomes available, making them a dynamic source of insight. It’s important to compare both to make informed decisions.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi for the Iceland vs. Estonia match can arise from several factors. Differences in user base, trading activity, and market-making strategies contribute to varying price discovery processes on each platform. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform – currently $1,445,308 overall – isn't evenly distributed, which can amplify price divergence. Each platform also has its own unique fee structure and liquidity conditions, influencing how traders assess and price the probability of different outcomes in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Iceland or Estonia would likely cause a shift in probabilities. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also influence trading activity. Major weather forecasts for the match location might also play a role, especially if conditions are expected to favor one team over the other. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and news coverage, can also contribute to price movements in this market. Keep an eye on these signals as the event draws closer.