TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$156,130,290

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,782,923,786

501,315

Markets across

37,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,847

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Iceland vs. Bulgaria
kalshi
predict
polymarket

What is the result of Iceland vs. Bulgaria?

Volume:
$826,448

Iceland

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 3, 2026

Closed: Oct 3, 3:57 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Iceland

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$213,767
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Iceland

View
100%
32%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$165,386
N/A
N/A
$95,290
Settled
Yes
predict

ISL

View
99%
31%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$11,859
$116,459
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Draw

View
2%
Yes 2¢No 98¢
—
$3,036
$7,133
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$81,195
N/A
N/A
$60,905
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Iceland vs. Bulgaria)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,558
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

BUL

View
1%
11%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$3,273
$18,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bulgaria

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$133,885
N/A
N/A
$104,686
Settled
No
polymarket

Bulgaria

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$72,961
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether Iceland will win their UEFA Nations League soccer match against Bulgaria on October 3, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Iceland winning is 100.0%, aggregating views from Kalshi, Predict, and Polymarket. Resolution will be based on official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA). Keep an eye on the match itself on October 3, 2026, to see if Iceland secures the win as currently predicted.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms consistently define resolution based on the 90-minute result, with similar fallback procedures for data availability and handling of postponements/cancellations.Primary resolution logic: Official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers (UEFA).

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the outcome (win, loss, or draw) within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
  • If the game is postponed, the market remains open until the game is completed.
  • If the game is canceled entirely, win/loss markets resolve to 'No', and the draw market resolves to 'Yes'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Data Availability: If official statistics are unavailable within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, Flashscore, Sofascore, or a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
  • No Acceptable Data: If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours, the market will resolve 50-50 or to 'Draw' where applicable.
Timing: Resolution will occur within 24 hours of the match's completion, or as soon as official results are available, whichever is sooner.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 between Iceland and Bulgaria.

Kalshi

The markets for the Iceland vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League soccer match resolve based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. There are three possible outcomes: Iceland win, Bulgaria win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The markets are independent of any official affiliations with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 between Iceland and Bulgaria.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Iceland vs. Bulgaria match. Currently, the consensus view across both platforms indicates a strong likelihood of a specific result, with a combined volume of $826,448. This allows traders to compare probabilities and volume across venues, providing a comprehensive overview of market sentiment. The dashboard tracks the evolving odds, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd as new information emerges. This provides a unique perspective beyond traditional sports betting odds, as it incorporates a diverse range of viewpoints.

Prediction market odds often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market relies on individuals freely trading on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional forecasts, as they incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs. However, sportsbook odds can be useful for arbitrage opportunities when significant differences exist.

Prices for this market on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading limits, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing levels of information and interpretation of available data among traders on each platform contribute to these discrepancies. Market-specific factors, such as recent team news or changes in player availability, may be weighted differently by traders on Polymarket versus Kalshi, leading to variations in the perceived probabilities and, consequently, the prices.