TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka
polymarket
kalshi

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka

Volume:
$2,144,811

Jiri Lehecka

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 3:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jiri Lehecka

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$865,484
N/A
N/A
$533,846
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,129
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$266
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$208
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$88
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kamil Majchrzak

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$877,840
N/A
N/A
$486,465
Settled
No
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$388,610
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,905
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$767
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the professional tennis match between Kamil Majchrzak and Jiri Lehecka at the 2026 HSBC Championships in London. Aggregated across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for Jiri Lehecka to win the match stands at 100.0%, based on resolution from the official ATP tournament records. Watch for the match scheduled on June 15, 2026, as the actual event window that will determine the final settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines three separate markets (winner, completion, and implicit tie/cancellation rules) with explicit retirement and walkover handling, while Kalshi defines only a winner market with a narrower "after a ball has been played" condition that does not address all edge cases covered by Polymarket.Hero tip: Polymarket traders have clarity on walkovers (50-50), retirements after play (advancing player wins), and delays beyond 7 days (50-50). Kalshi traders face ambiguity on whether mid-match retirements, walkovers, and extended delays are covered by the "after a ball has been played" language. Align position sizing and hedge strategy accordingly; Polymarket's completion market provides a useful hedge for Kalshi exposure.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Winner market: Resolves to advancing player if match begins and opponent retires/defaults/is disqualified; resolves 50-50 if walkover (pre-match withdrawal), cancellation, tie, or 7+ day delay without winner. Completion market: Resolves No if any forfeit (walkover, retirement, default) occurs or match is canceled/delayed beyond 7 days. Key Quote: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.'
  • Kalshi: Winner market only: Resolves to Yes if either player wins 'after a ball has been played.' Does not explicitly address walkovers, retirements, cancellations, or delay scenarios. Key Quote: 'If Kamil Majchrzak wins the Majchrzak vs Lehecka professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP London Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Kamil Majchrzak and Jiri Lehecka in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kamil Majchrzak' if Kamil Majchrzak advances against Jiri Lehecka. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if Jiri Lehecka advances against Kamil Majchrzak. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that a ball has been played in the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks in structure and incentive alignment. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate real money from traders who profit by forecasting accurately. This often produces sharper, less biased odds on niche events. However, sportsbooks typically offer tighter spreads and faster liquidity on major sports matchups. Comparing this market's prices to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities before the match begins.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, contract designs, and liquidity pools. Polymarket uses binary yes-or-no contracts with defined settlement rules, while Kalshi operates on a different market-making model. Timing of large trades, regional trader activity, and platform-specific fee structures can push prices apart temporarily. Arbitrage traders often exploit these gaps, but friction costs and withdrawal delays mean small spreads persist. Monitoring both venues helps you understand where consensus is strongest and where outlier pricing may signal hidden information.

Key catalysts include recent head-to-head records, current ATP rankings, and injury or fitness updates on either player. Tournament draw announcements, court surface conditions, and weather forecasts closer to match day often trigger repricing. Media coverage highlighting form, momentum, or psychological factors can shift trader sentiment rapidly. Practice session results and pre-match press conferences in the final days may also influence positioning. Monitor tennis news outlets and official HSBC Championships communications for developments that could reshape expectations before the match takes place.