TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov
polymarket
kalshi

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov

Volume:
$3,065,949

Denis Shapovalov

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 1:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Denis Shapovalov

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,507,889
N/A
N/A
$641,327
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,634
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jack Pinnington Jones

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$991,153
N/A
N/A
$383,296
Settled
No
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$557,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether Jack Pinnington Jones will defeat Denis Shapovalov in their professional tennis match at the 2026 HSBC Championships in London. Aggregated across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability stands at 100.0% for a Pinnington Jones victory, as determined by official ATP match records. The match is scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET, with resolution occurring once a ball has been played in the Round of 32 encounter.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket separates completion and winner markets with explicit edge-case rules (retirement advances winner; walkover = 50-50), while Kalshi conflates completion with winner determination and lacks explicit guidance on forfeits, retirements, and walkovers. This creates ambiguity in scenarios where the match begins but does not complete normally.Hero tip: Focus on the distinction: Polymarket completion market penalizes all forfeits (NO), but the winner market rewards retirements/defaults to the advancing player. Kalshi only requires a ball to be played but does not clarify the outcome if a player retires after one point. For edge cases (retirement, walkover, cancellation), cross-reference ATP Tour official statements before settlement. If trading Kalshi, assume a ball-played threshold is met and a winner emerges; if trading Polymarket winner, assume retirements/defaults advance the opponent.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Two separate markets: (1) Completion market resolves YES only if all sets/games completed through normal play; forfeits, walkovers, retirements, cancellations, ties, or 7+ day delays = NO. (2) Winner market resolves to advancing player if match begins and opponent retires/defaults/is disqualified; walkovers (pre-match withdrawal) = 50-50; cancellations/ties/7+ delays = 50-50. Key Quote: 'If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve No.'
  • Kalshi: Single market resolves YES if either player wins after a ball is played. Does not explicitly address retirements, walkovers, defaults, or incomplete matches. Ambiguity exists on whether a retirement after one ball counts as a win or a non-resolution. Key Quote: 'If Denis Shapovalov wins...after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Jack Pinnington Jones and Denis Shapovalov in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jack Pinnington Jones' if Jack Pinnington Jones advances against Denis Shapovalov. This market will resolve to 'Denis Shapovalov' if Denis Shapovalov advances against Jack Pinnington Jones. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that a ball has been played in the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market pricing for the Pinnington Jones vs Shapovalov tennis match across Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading platforms where traders forecast the outcome. Polymarket frames the question around whether Pinnington Jones wins the Round of 32 match, while Kalshi tracks the completed match result directly. By monitoring both venues, you see real-time consensus odds and spot divergences in how each platform's trader base assesses the matchup. The aggregated view helps you identify which player the broader prediction market favors and whether pricing gaps exist between platforms.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price tennis matches differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, adjusting lines to manage risk. Prediction markets, by contrast, rely on trader consensus—participants buy and sell shares based on their own belief in an outcome, with no house margin built in. This market aggregates trader-driven pricing, which often reflects sharper, less biased estimates than traditional sportsbook lines. Comparing this market's odds to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value opportunities or confirm consensus.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, all of which influence how prices evolve. Kalshi's binary format (will Pinnington Jones win?) may appeal to traders seeking simplicity, while Polymarket's match-result framing draws those comfortable with broader outcome categories. Timing of large trades, regional trader activity, and platform-specific incentives can also widen spreads. Monitoring both venues reveals arbitrage signals and helps you gauge which platform's pricing is more reliable for this matchup.