TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
polymarket
kalshi

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Volume:
$3,384,603

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

 - Kalshi

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 2:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,668,907
N/A
N/A
$935,381
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$346
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cameron Norrie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,104,991
N/A
N/A
$648,364
Settled
No
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$605,936
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks the set handicap outcome of the professional tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the 2026 HSBC Championships in London. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for Norrie to cover a -1.5 set handicap stands at 100.0%. The match is scheduled for June 15, 2026, with resolution determined by the official match result as recognized by ATP records once play has commenced.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's outcome-only logic does not distinguish between normal completion and forfeits/retirements, while Polymarket offers two separate markets with explicit completion and advancement criteria. This creates scope and edge-case misalignment.Hero tip: If trading the Kalshi market, assume any match outcome (including retirement or default) counts as a Yes resolution. If trading Polymarket, use the winner market for advancement-based resolution and the completion market only if you require full normal play. A retirement or walkover will resolve differently across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves Yes if either Cameron Norrie or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins the match after a ball has been played. No explicit edge-case handling for walkovers, retirements, defaults, or cancellations. Key quote: 'after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket (Winner Market): Resolves to the advancing player if match is completed or if one player advances via opponent retirement/default/disqualification. Resolves 50-50 for cancellation, tie, delay >7 days without winner, or walkover. Key quote: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover...this market will resolve to 50-50.'
  • Polymarket (Completion Market): Resolves Yes only if all games and sets required to determine a winner are played to completion through normal play. Resolves No for any forfeit, retirement, walkover, cancellation, tie, or delay >7 days. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise...it will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Davidovich Fokina' if Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advances against Cameron Norrie. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that a ball has been played in the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price tennis matches through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks employ oddsmakers and manage liability across fixed bet types; prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs in real time. Prediction market prices often reflect sharper, more dynamic consensus because traders face direct financial incentive to identify mispricings. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury updates. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbooks reveals whether professional traders or casual bettors currently dominate the prediction market price.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct order books, fee structures, and user bases, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities. Kalshi's regulatory framework and liquidity profile may attract different trader demographics than Polymarket's. Settlement timing, withdrawal policies, and platform-specific incentives also influence how traders price risk. Monitoring both venues helps you identify whether price gaps reflect genuine disagreement or simply market microstructure friction—both can signal trading opportunities before convergence.

Recent form, head-to-head records, and court surface preference are primary catalysts. Injury reports or late withdrawals would trigger sharp repricing. Betting syndicates and professional traders often move the market hours before play begins as new information surfaces. Weather conditions, player fatigue from earlier rounds, and lineup confirmations can shift odds materially. Social media sentiment and media coverage may also influence retail trader positioning. Monitor official tournament updates and player social accounts for announcements that could reshape this market's trajectory.