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$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

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$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

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VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic
polymarket
kalshi

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic

Volume:
$1,567,115

Hamad Medjedovic

 - Kalshi

Hamad Medjedovic - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 1:10 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hamad Medjedovic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$629,284
N/A
N/A
$398,684
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arthur Rinderknech

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$614,531
N/A
N/A
$444,053
Settled
No
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$320,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$771
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$85
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the professional tennis match between Arthur Rinderknech and Hamad Medjedovic at the 2026 HSBC Championships in London. Aggregated across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for Rinderknech to win stands at 100.0%, based on resolution by the official match result. The match is scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET, and resolution will be determined once the final outcome is officially recorded.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi winner market does not explicitly address edge cases (walkover, retirement, cancellation) that Polymarket handles with detailed 50-50 or No outcomes. Polymarket separates winner and completion into two markets with different resolution logic.Hero tip: If trading Kalshi, assume standard ATP rules apply (advancing player wins). If trading Polymarket, carefully distinguish: the winner market pays the advancing player even on retirement/default, but the completion market pays No. A retirement scenario will have opposite outcomes across these markets. Monitor ATP official sources for match status updates.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Winner-only market. Resolves Yes if either player wins after a ball is played. No explicit handling of walkovers, retirements, cancellations, or delays. Assumes standard ATP advancement rules apply by omission.
  • Polymarket: Two separate markets: (1) Winner market resolves to advancing player if match completes or if one player advances via retirement/default/disqualification; resolves 50-50 for walkover, cancellation, tie, or delay >7 days. (2) Completion market resolves Yes only if all sets/games played through normal play; resolves No for any forfeit, walkover, retirement, cancellation, tie, or delay >7 days.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Rinderknech and Hamad Medjedovic in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Hamad Medjedovic. This market will resolve to 'Hamad Medjedovic' if Hamad Medjedovic advances against Arthur Rinderknech. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that a ball has been played in the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on continuous trader participation to discover prices. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of independent traders rather than a single operator's view. Prediction market odds often incorporate faster-moving information and can diverge significantly from traditional sportsbook spreads, especially as match day approaches. Comparing both sources helps bettors identify which venue offers better value for their thesis on this matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform design, user base composition, and liquidity depth all influence how each venue prices this market. Kalshi and Polymarket attract different trader demographics and operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, which can lead to temporary mispricings. Liquidity concentration also matters: if one platform has significantly deeper order books, its price may move more slowly to new information. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and settlement mechanics create different incentives for traders. These gaps typically narrow as the match approaches, but savvy traders monitor both venues for opportunities to exploit pricing inefficiencies.