TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel
kalshi
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel

Volume:
$40,957

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel

 - Polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 22, 4:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$36,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arthur Fery wins 2-0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$575
N/A
N/A
$575
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$318
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Arthur Fery wins 2-1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,245
N/A
N/A
$1,231
Settled
No
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Toby Samuel wins 2-0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$410
N/A
N/A
$410
Settled
No
kalshi

Toby Samuel wins 2-1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
$328
Settled
No
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 21.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group covers a professional tennis match between Arthur Fery and Toby Samuel at the 2026 HSBC Championships (ATP London), scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET in the Round of 32. Markets track both match completion and match winner outcome across two prediction platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market lacks explicit non-completion resolution rules, creating unresolvability risk. Polymarket's two-market structure (completion vs. winner) with divergent walkover/retirement handling (NO vs. advancing player vs. 50-50) introduces scope and outcome mismatch across platforms.Hero tip: Do not assume Kalshi treats retirements and walkovers the same as normal wins. The market description lists only set-score outcomes with no contingency language. Request clarification from Kalshi on whether a retirement/default/disqualification resolves YES (if set scores are recorded) or voids the market. On Polymarket, the Completion market is a separate binary from the Winner market; they will diverge if the match is not completed under normal play.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Winner-only market with four YES conditions based on set scores (2-0 or 2-1 by either player). No explicit resolution rules for forfeits, retirements, walkovers, cancellations, or ties. Assumes normal match completion. Critical gap: unclear whether a retirement that determines a winner resolves YES or is unresolvable.
  • Polymarket (Completion Market): Resolves YES only if match is played to full completion under normal play. Any forfeit (walkover, retirement, default, disqualification), cancellation, tie, or delay beyond 7 days resolves to NO. Key Quote: 'If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve to No.'
  • Polymarket (Winner Market): Resolves to advancing player if match begins but is incomplete due to retirement/default/disqualification. Walkovers (pre-match withdrawal) resolve to 50-50. Cancellations, ties, or delays beyond 7 days resolve to 50-50. Key Quote: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Toby Samuel in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fery' if Arthur Fery advances against Toby Samuel. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Arthur Fery. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the final set score of the Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP London Round Of 32. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price. If postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are settled at Fair Market Price at the Exchange's discretion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets aggregate decentralized trader beliefs in real time. This market reflects what traders collectively believe will happen, often incorporating information faster than traditional sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing this market's probability to sportsbook spreads can reveal mispricing opportunities, though prediction market odds tend to converge toward consensus as the event date approaches.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and contract design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with distinct risk tolerances and information sets, and order flow imbalances on one venue don't instantly arbitrage away on the other. Additionally, contract specifications—such as exact outcome definitions or settlement timing—can create subtle pricing gaps. Monitoring both platforms helps you identify which consensus is more robust and whether cross-platform trading opportunities exist.

Market prices typically shift in response to fighter news—injuries, training updates, or public statements—and betting patterns from sharp money. Media coverage, expert commentary, and social sentiment can also influence trader positioning. Weigh-in results and any last-minute rule changes or venue adjustments as catalysts. Close monitoring of both platforms will help you spot early moves before they propagate across the broader market, giving you an edge on timing entries and exits.