TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo
polymarket
kalshi

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo

Volume:
$2,451,170

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 22, 4:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$656,483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Gabriel Diallo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,175,967
N/A
N/A
$766,488
Settled
No
kalshi

Alex de Minaur

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$611,299
N/A
N/A
$383,782
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,087
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,905
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,384
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$487
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Match O/U 22.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Match O/U 23.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the professional tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Gabriel Diallo in the 2026 HSBC Championships ATP London Round of 32, specifically whether de Minaur wins with a set handicap of -1.5 sets. Aggregated across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for de Minaur (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) stands at 100.0%, according to resolution rules from the official match records. Watch for the match scheduled on June 15, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET, as the actual match outcome will determine final settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket separates match completion (Yes/No) from winner determination (player name or 50-50), with explicit retirement/default advancement rules. Kalshi treats completion and winner as a single binary outcome with no explicit edge-case handling.Hero tip: Polymarket's completion market is stricter—any non-completion event (retirement, walkover, cancellation, 7+ day delay) triggers No. Polymarket's winner market is more flexible—retirement/default after play begins still resolves to the advancing player. Kalshi's binary structure is ambiguous on these scenarios. For settlement, prioritize ATP Tour official statistics and confirm whether the match reached a decisive winner through normal play or via opponent withdrawal/default.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Two separate markets: (1) Completion market resolves Yes only if all games/sets played to completion through normal play; resolves No for any non-completion (forfeit, walkover, cancellation, 7+ day delay, tie). (2) Winner market resolves to advancing player if match begins but incomplete due to retirement/default/disqualification; resolves 50-50 for walkover, cancellation, tie, or 7+ day delay. Key Quote: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary outcome: resolves Yes if either player wins after a ball is played. No explicit handling of retirement, walkover, cancellation, or other non-completion scenarios. Implicitly treats winner determination as equivalent to match completion. Key Quote: 'If Alex de Minaur wins the de Minaur vs Diallo professional tennis match...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Gabriel Diallo in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Gabriel Diallo. This market will resolve to 'Gabriel Diallo' if Gabriel Diallo advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that a ball has been played in the de Minaur vs Diallo professional tennis match at the 2026 ATP London Round Of 32. The market resolves to Yes for whichever player wins the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price per rules. Postponements or delays do not close the market; it remains open and closes only after the rescheduled match concludes, provided this occurs within two weeks.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks use different mechanisms to set odds. Sportsbooks employ oddsmakers and adjust lines to balance liability; prediction markets rely on peer-to-peer trading and collective price discovery. This market's odds reflect what traders are willing to stake, not a bookmaker's margin. Prediction market prices often converge toward true probability closer to event time, especially when liquidity is high. Comparing this market's implied odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal value opportunities or consensus shifts in how the tennis community views the matchup.

Recent form, head-to-head records, and injury updates are primary catalysts for price movement. News of player fitness, court conditions, or draw-related developments can shift trader sentiment sharply. Betting activity on external sportsbooks often flows into prediction markets, amplifying moves. Live match action—early breaks, momentum swings, or tactical adjustments—will drive intraday volatility once play begins. Tournament context, such as fatigue from prior rounds or seeding implications, may also influence how traders reassess each player's winning probability as the event date approaches.