TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo
kalshi
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo

Volume:
$211,647

Over 18.5 games

 - Kalshi

Over 18.5 games - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 11:32 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 18.5 games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,934
N/A
N/A
$3,934
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 23.5 games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,456
N/A
N/A
$2,339
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Match O/U 23.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$682
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$577
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 28.5 games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$431
N/A
N/A
$431
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Match O/U 22.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 2 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$350
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Match O/U 21.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$97
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200,124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,977
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$372
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 10.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group covers a professional tennis match between Aleksandar Kovacevic and Francisco Cerundolo at the 2026 HSBC Championships (ATP London), scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. Markets span match winner, set winners, game totals across multiple thresholds, and set counts, with resolution tied to official ATP statistics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents three overlapping binary game-count markets (18.5, 23.5, 28.5) with incomplete resolution logic, while Polymarket offers a unified, comprehensive framework with explicit Over/Under thresholds, set-level granularity, and 50-50 fallbacks for incomplete matches. The two platforms use fundamentally different market structures and resolution mechanics.Hero tip: Do not cross-reference Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes directly. Kalshi's Yes/No binary on game counts lacks explicit No conditions and tie-breaking rules; Polymarket's Over/Under structure is explicit and complete. Verify match completion status and final game count independently for each platform before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Three separate binary markets: Games > 18.5 = Yes, Games > 23.5 = Yes, Games > 28.5 = Yes. No explicit No resolution condition, no fallback for incomplete/cancelled matches, no tie-breaking logic. Quote: 'If the number of completed games in the full match is above [threshold]...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Comprehensive framework with 10+ distinct markets: Match winner (binary), Set winners (binary per set), Game Over/Unders (multiple thresholds: 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, 21.5, 22.5, 23.5), Set count Over/Under (2.5), and Completed Match (Yes/No). All include explicit 50-50 fallback for incomplete/cancelled/delayed matches. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds [threshold]. Otherwise, it will resolve to Under.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Kovacevic and Francisco Cerundolo in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 16, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Kovacevic' if Aleksandar Kovacevic advances against Francisco Cerundolo. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Aleksandar Kovacevic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the total number of completed games across the full match. The match must begin with a ball being played to be considered as occurring; if cancelled before play starts due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other reasons, the market resolves to fair price. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match concludes within two weeks. If a player retires, markets that can be unconditionally settled based on completed play resolve accordingly; those that cannot are settled at fair market price at the Exchange's discretion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are driven by peer-to-peer trading rather than sportsbook risk management, often producing different odds on the same event. Market prices reflect aggregated trader beliefs and can move faster than traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. Prediction markets tend to be more efficient at pricing uncertainty when liquidity is high, though sportsbooks may offer tighter spreads. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to major sportsbook lines can reveal value opportunities or consensus shifts in how the tennis community views the matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, risk appetites, and liquidity pools, which naturally produces price variation. Polymarket and Kalshi also operate distinct market mechanics—order book depth, fee structures, and user interfaces shape how quickly prices adjust to new information. Regional trader concentration, platform-specific incentives, and timing of large trades can widen or narrow the spread. These differences are normal and create arbitrage opportunities for sharp traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.

Player injury announcements, recent tournament performance, and ranking shifts can trigger sharp price moves in this market. Court surface conditions, weather forecasts, and head-to-head records become more relevant as the event date nears. Betting syndicates or professional traders entering either platform can shift liquidity and implied odds significantly. Social media sentiment, expert commentary, and any late-breaking news about player fitness or form will likely drive volatility. Monitor both platforms for sudden volume spikes, which often signal informed traders acting on new information.