TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.9b
24H VOL:
$225,546,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,816,443,416
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,867,230,198
490,493
Markets across
36,414
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,838
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Description
The Rotten Tomatoes score reflects aggregated critic reviews for a film, indicating overall reception. Participants can speculate on whether a movie will achieve various levels of critical acclaim by the end of a specified date. These scores help gauge public and professional opinion on a film's quality.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score for 'How to Rob a Bank' as measured on November 16, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Each market has a specific threshold; if the film's score exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. For example, a score of 78 would resolve as Yes for thresholds below 78 but No for thresholds at or above 78. Scores are finalized the Monday after wide release. Note that these markets are descriptive references to Rotten Tomatoes and do not imply endorsement or affiliation by Rotten Tomatoes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on film reviews and box office projections, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders assessing the likelihood of a specific Rotten Tomatoes score. Discrepancies can arise from different information sources, weighting of factors, or simply varying interpretations of the film’s potential. It’s common to see the market odds diverge from initial analyst predictions, especially as more information becomes available and trading volume increases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the film’s potential Rotten Tomatoes score. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher demand for a particular outcome pushing its price up and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and trader sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Rotten Tomatoes score for 'How to Rob a Bank' is publicly available and verifiable from credible public reporting. The final Rotten Tomatoes score, as reported by Rotten Tomatoes, will determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the score range will receive a payout based on the market’s pricing at resolution. The resolution process is automated based on this publicly available data.
Several factors could influence trading in this market before it resolves. Early reviews from film critics, particularly those from prominent publications, will likely have a significant impact. Positive or negative buzz on social media and film forums could also shift trader sentiment. Any news regarding the film’s marketing campaign, distribution, or potential controversies could also move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the film’s quality and reception has the potential to influence the odds in this market.
