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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Closed: Jul 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market on Polymarket tracks how many consecutive weeks Drake's upcoming album ICEMAN will occupy the No. 1 position on the Billboard 200 albums chart. The leading outcome—that ICEMAN holds the top spot for 4 weeks or more—currently stands at 65.5%, while a 3-week run is priced at 20.5%. Resolution will be determined by Billboard's official chart data. Watch for the album's release in 2026, as Drake must deliver ICEMAN by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to any outcome other than the lowest bracket.
Polymarket
Drake's new album "ICEMAN" is expected to release in 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of weeks in a row "ICEMAN" holds the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart. If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the relevant album does not hold the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 albums chart for the first week that would record its release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information from music industry observers, chart analysts, and fans. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which are often point estimates or qualitative, prediction markets assign continuous probabilities to each outcome. Comparing market odds to music journalist predictions, industry chart analysts, and streaming-data forecasters can reveal where traders see edge or disagreement. Markets typically incorporate breaking news—chart performance, competing releases, streaming momentum—faster than periodic analyst updates.
The market resolves on Jul 31, 2026. Resolution is determined by official Billboard 200 chart data, which tracks album performance across a defined tracking week. The outcome reflects the total number of consecutive weeks ICEMAN occupies the No. 1 position on the Billboard 200 from its debut or re-entry through the end of its chart run. Once the album drops below No. 1 or the resolution date arrives, the final week count is locked and the corresponding outcome contract settles.
