TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 6 million
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 21, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group forecasts the number of views the #1 show on Netflix will receive in a given week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 data released on Tuesdays, reflecting the previous week's viewership. Markets exist for various view thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi uses a fixed resolution date and multiple thresholds, while Polymarket uses a specific update time and asks separate questions for each threshold, including a fallback resolution date.Hero tip: Pay close attention to the Netflix update timing on Polymarket and the potential for delays. Kalshi's fixed date could lead to resolution before the official data is available.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolution is tied to the official Netflix Top 10 update on Tuesdays at 3:00 PM ET, with a fallback date of September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Asks separate questions for each view threshold. "If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- Kalshi: Resolution is based on a chart published on September 22, 2026, with multiple markets corresponding to different view thresholds (6M, 9M, 12M, etc.). No fallback date is specified.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show has a views figure greater than or equal to the specified amount, according to Netflix. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether the number of views (not hours viewed) of the top Show ranked on Netflix’s weekly charts for Global "Shows | English" meets or exceeds a specified threshold. The charts are updated on Tuesday, and the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart is published. The chart published on September 22, 2026, will reflect data for the week ending the previous Sunday. These markets and products are not endorsed by Netflix, and any references to Netflix are descriptive only, indicating no affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on historical data and studio projections, while this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time sentiment and information. The dynamic pricing on Polymarket and Kalshi allows for rapid adjustments based on new data, such as trailer releases or critical reviews. This can lead to more accurate predictions, especially in rapidly evolving entertainment landscapes. The collective intelligence captured in this market can sometimes outperform individual expert opinions.