TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 9 million
- Kalshi
At least 9 million - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group forecasts the number of views the #1 show on Netflix will receive in a given week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 data released each Tuesday, reflecting the previous week's viewership. These markets allow users to predict the popularity of Netflix content.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers markets resolving based on a range of thresholds, while Polymarket offers markets based on individual thresholds. This creates SKU risk and requires careful consideration of the specific thresholds.Hero tip: Focus on the specific thresholds offered on each platform and assess the probability of the #1 show exceeding those levels. Diversify your positions across platforms to mitigate SKU risk.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket markets ask if the #1 show will have *at least* a specified number of views. "Question: Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 6 million views this week?"
- Kalshi: Kalshi offers multiple markets, each resolving 'Yes' if the #1 show has *at least* a specific number of views. "If the #1 Show on Netflix has at least 6 million views on the chart published on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show has a views figure greater than or equal to the specified amount, according to Netflix. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the view count of the top-ranked show on Netflix's Global "Shows | English" chart for the week ending the Sunday before September 15, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 6 million to 50 million views). A market resolves to "Yes" if the announced view count meets or exceeds its respective threshold. All markets share identical secondary rules, clarifying that "views" refers to count rather than hours watched, and noting that Netflix has not endorsed these markets. The chart is published on Tuesday, September 15, after markets close at 11:59 PM ET the previous day.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews of the #1 show could influence viewership. Major marketing campaigns or promotional activities by Netflix could also drive increased interest. External events, such as holidays or significant news stories, might affect viewing habits. A surprise release of a highly anticipated competing show on another platform could draw viewers away. Any substantial shift in public attention or media coverage related to the show is likely to move the odds in this market, potentially creating trading opportunities.