TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 6 million
- Kalshi
At least 6 million - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Aug 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group predicts the viewership of the #1 show on Netflix for the week, with multiple markets setting different threshold values for views to resolve as 'Yes'. The resolution depends on Netflix's official Top 10 list update.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets use the same primary data source and resolution logic, differing only in threshold values.Primary resolution logic: Netflix's official Top 10 TV shows list update on top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves based on the view count of the #1 global Netflix show as reported in the Top 10 update on September 1, 2026.
- If multiple shows tie for #1, the show with the alphabetically first title determines the resolution.
- Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the view count meets or exceeds the specified threshold; otherwise, 'No'.
- If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 4, 2026, the Polymarket market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie for #1: The show with the alphabetically first title among tied #1 shows determines the resolution.
- Delayed Update: Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if the Top 10 update is not published by September 4, 2026. Kalshi markets have no explicit delay clause.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show has a views figure greater than or equal to the specified amount, according to Netflix. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines whether the number of views for the top-ranked show on Netflix's Global "Shows | English" chart for the week ending the Sunday before September 1, 2026, meets or exceeds specified thresholds. All markets share the same secondary rules, focusing exclusively on view counts rather than hours viewed. The Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart's publication. None of these markets imply endorsement by Netflix, which is mentioned only descriptively. Each market has a distinct primary rule, each checking if the view count reaches a specific million-view milestone (from 6 million to 50 million). If the actual view count equals or exceeds a threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The charts reflect global English-language show views for that week only.