TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 9 million
- Kalshi
At least 9 million - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 20, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the viewership performance of the top-ranked English-language show on Netflix's global weekly charts for the week ending Sunday, July 20, 2026, as published on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Resolution is based on the view count (not hours viewed) reported by Netflix for that #1 show.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the number of views accumulated by the #1 ranked show on Netflix's Global 'Shows | English' weekly chart for the week ending the Sunday prior to the chart publication date of July 21, 2026. The metric tracked is views only, excluding hours viewed. Netflix updates its charts on Tuesdays, so the market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, July 20, 2026. The event resolves based on which view threshold the #1 show meets or exceeds, with thresholds ranging from 6 million to 50 million views. This product is not endorsed by Netflix and references to Netflix are descriptive only.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds aggregate the collective judgment of traders betting real money on outcomes, often diverging from traditional analyst estimates. While entertainment analysts may rely on historical viewership patterns and promotional spend, this market incorporates live trader sentiment, social media signals, and breaking news about show performance. Prediction markets typically react faster to new information than published forecasts, making them a complementary signal for understanding expected viewership ranges and identifying where consensus may be shifting.
On Kalshi, traders buy and sell shares representing different viewership outcome ranges, with prices reflecting the implied probability of each bracket. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Share prices move based on order flow and market depth; higher prices indicate stronger trader confidence in that outcome. The bid-ask spread tightens as volume increases, allowing more precise price discovery around where traders expect the #1 show's weekly views to land.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2026, once the weekly viewership figures for Netflix's #1 show become verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by the official view count released by Netflix or confirmed through independent entertainment data providers tracking streaming performance. Traders' positions settle based on which viewership bracket the actual figure falls into, with payouts distributed accordingly once the data is finalized and verified.
Major catalysts include Netflix's official viewership announcements, surprise show cancellations or renewals, celebrity news tied to the #1 series, and competitive releases from other platforms. Social media trends, critical reviews, and word-of-mouth momentum can shift trader expectations rapidly. Additionally, changes in Netflix's subscriber base, regional viewing patterns, and shifts in the #1 ranking itself will influence how traders price viewership outcomes. Real-time engagement metrics and industry reports often precede official data, creating trading opportunities.
