TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 15 million
- Kalshi
At least 15 million - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Closed: Jul 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Netflix publishes weekly viewing charts every Tuesday for English-language shows globally. This event tracks how many individual views the #1 ranked show accumulates during the week ending Sunday, June 29, 2026, as reported on the chart published Tuesday, July 7, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the view count of the top-ranked show on Netflix's Global English-language weekly chart published on July 7, 2026, which reports data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The metric tracked is total views (distinct from hours viewed). Multiple resolution thresholds apply: the event resolves Yes if the #1 show achieves at least 6 million, 9 million, 12 million, 15 million, 18 million, 21 million, 25 million, 30 million, 35 million, 40 million, or 50 million views. Each threshold represents a separate market outcome. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, July 6, 2026, one day before chart publication, to prevent trading on known information.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives for accuracy, often diverging from traditional analyst estimates because traders incorporate live viewership signals and social sentiment that formal forecasts may lag. While entertainment analysts rely on historical patterns and survey data, this market prices in breaking news, algorithm changes, and competitive releases that shift viewer attention week to week. The two approaches complement each other: analysts provide structural context, while market odds capture dynamic, up-to-the-minute conviction about Netflix's #1 show performance.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different viewership outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices move as new information emerges—such as Netflix's weekly top-10 reports, subscriber growth announcements, or competing releases—and traders adjust their positions accordingly. The spread between bid and ask reflects uncertainty; tighter spreads indicate high confidence in a particular outcome, while wider spreads signal disagreement about the likely viewership range.
This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final viewership count for the #1 show in the specified week will be measured against the outcome brackets offered in the market. Traders who correctly predicted the range will receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Major catalysts include Netflix's official weekly top-10 rankings, subscriber growth announcements, and release schedules for competing shows on rival platforms. Award nominations, celebrity news tied to the #1 show, and viral social-media moments can drive sudden viewership spikes. Technical factors like Netflix algorithm changes, regional availability shifts, and password-sharing policy updates also influence weekly performance. Real-time streaming data leaks and entertainment media coverage of viewership trends typically trigger rapid repricing as traders incorporate fresh signals.
