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24H VOL:
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24H TRANSACTIONS:
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?
At least 6 million
- Kalshi
At least 6 million - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 12h:55m:13s
Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 6 million views?
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Description
This event tracks the popularity of the top movie on Netflix's English-language global chart for a specific week, measuring how many times it was viewed. The outcome depends on whether the view count meets or exceeds various thresholds, reflecting audience engagement with the most-watched film during that period.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the number of views (not hours viewed) of the #1 Movie on Netflix’s weekly Global "Movies | English" chart published on Nov 3, 2026, which reflects data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The markets will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart’s publication. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 6 million to 50 million views); if the published view count meets or exceeds that threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. These products are not endorsed by Netflix, and any references to Netflix are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on historical data and industry trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential surprises. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when anticipating the impact of viral marketing or unexpected critical reception. Examining these differences can be insightful, as the market’s price movements represent a dynamic assessment of probabilities as new information emerges. This is a useful way to gauge how public sentiment aligns with expert opinions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different view count ranges for the #1 Netflix movie. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust, creating a dynamic and efficient forecast. The market’s price represents the collective belief of participants, constantly updated with each trade.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official viewership numbers for the #1 Netflix movie this week are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of views reported by Netflix for the specified period. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets based on the verified results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. A major marketing push from Netflix, positive or negative critical reviews, and unexpected social media buzz surrounding the #1 movie are all potential catalysts. Additionally, the release of competing content on other streaming platforms could influence viewership. Any news regarding the movie’s cast or director, or even broader trends in streaming habits, could also shift the market’s probabilities. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price movements in this market.
