TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the weekly viewership performance of the top movie on Netflix's English-language global charts. Participants can speculate on whether the leading film will meet various viewership thresholds in a specific week, based on official Netflix data.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the number of views (not hours viewed) of the top-ranked movie on Netflix’s weekly Global "Movies | English" chart published on October 27, 2026, which reflects data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Each market has a specific numerical threshold: if the view count meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before October 27. These markets are independent speculation and have not been endorsed by Netflix; any references to Netflix are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd and real-time adjustments based on available data. While analysts may rely on historical trends and studio projections, this market incorporates a broader range of information and participant perspectives. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially in the days leading up to the end of the viewing week, as traders react to early reports and social media buzz. This dynamic pricing can offer a different perspective than static analyst predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different view counts for the top Netflix movie. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means prices fluctuate constantly based on supply and demand, creating a real-time forecast of the most likely number of views. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official number of views for the top movie on Netflix for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official viewership data released by Netflix or a widely recognized source tracking streaming statistics. The market will then determine which prediction was closest to the actual number of views, and those holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the market’s pricing at resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Early viewership reports, critical reviews, and social media trends surrounding the number one movie on Netflix will all play a role. Unexpected marketing pushes by Netflix or viral moments related to the film could also drive changes in the market. Furthermore, the release of competing content on other streaming platforms could impact viewership, shifting predictions in this market. Any news impacting the film's popularity has the potential to move the odds.
