TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the weekly viewership performance of the top movie on Netflix's English-language global chart for a specific week. Participants assess whether the leading film reaches various viewership thresholds as reported in Netflix's official weekly rankings.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the number of views (not hours viewed) of the #1 Movie on Netflix’s weekly Global "Movies | English" chart published on October 13, 2026, which reflects data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Each market has a specific numerical threshold: if the top movie’s view count meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading closes at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the publication date. These markets are independent of Netflix, which has not endorsed them, and all references to Netflix are used descriptively only.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those predictions are often qualitative or based on different methodologies. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi represents a quantitative forecast, reflecting their assessment of the likelihood of various viewership levels. It's worth noting that prediction markets often incorporate information faster than traditional forecasts, potentially offering a more up-to-date view of expectations. Do analysts anticipate a similar range of views as reflected in this market?
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official viewership numbers for the top movie on Netflix are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported views for the week in question, as determined by Netflix’s official data. The market will then determine which outcome – the number of views exceeding or falling below certain thresholds – is the correct one, based on this publicly available information.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Unexpected announcements regarding new movie releases on Netflix, particularly those with high anticipated viewership, could significantly shift expectations. Positive or negative critical reviews of the current number one movie could also impact its popularity and, consequently, the market price. Furthermore, any news related to Netflix’s overall subscriber numbers or viewing habits could also move this market. Finally, social media buzz and trending topics surrounding the movie could also play a role.
