TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group forecasts the number of views the most popular movie on Netflix will receive in a given week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 data release, typically on Tuesdays, and focuses on global viewership figures.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi uses a series of binary 'greater than or equal to' thresholds, while Polymarket offers range-based and 'greater than or equal to' markets. This creates a structural difference in how the markets resolve.Hero tip: Be mindful of the different market structures. Kalshi requires exceeding a threshold, while Polymarket asks about falling within a range or exceeding a threshold. This impacts probability assessment.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Offers markets asking if the #1 movie will have a view count within a specific range or above a threshold, with tie-breaking rules based on alphabetical order of movie titles. "Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 16 and 20 million views this week?"
- Kalshi: Presents a series of binary markets where resolution depends on whether the #1 movie's view count meets or exceeds a defined threshold. "If the #1 Movie on Netflix has at least 6 million views on the chart published on Oct 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve according to the views figure of the movie that this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie, according to Netflix. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. If the reported views figure falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used to determine the final figure.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the number of views (not hours viewed) of the #1 Movie on Netflix’s weekly Global "Movies | English" chart published on Oct 6, 2026, which reflects data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 6 million to 50 million views); if the published view count meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. The markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart’s publication. These markets are independent of Netflix, which has not endorsed them.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket might attract a different type of trader than Kalshi, leading to differing risk appetites and interpretations of available information. Additionally, the volume traded on each platform influences price discovery; a higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the prevailing price. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies in this market, even though both platforms address the same underlying question about Netflix viewership.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for the #1 Netflix movie could influence viewership. Major marketing campaigns or promotional pushes by Netflix could also drive increased engagement. Additionally, the release of competing content on other streaming platforms could divert attention away from the leading Netflix title. Any news or events that affect overall streaming trends or consumer behavior could move this market, as traders adjust their predictions based on the latest information.