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How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?
kalshi
polymarket

How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?

Volume:
$57,000

18M+

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 15, 4:55 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

18M+

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 18 million

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,279
N/A
N/A
$825
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 9 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,098
N/A
N/A
$2,098
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 6 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,652
N/A
N/A
$1,649
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 12 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,486
N/A
N/A
$430
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 15 million

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$920
N/A
N/A
$715
Settled
Yes
polymarket

15M+

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 30 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,629
N/A
N/A
$5,285
Settled
No
polymarket

30M+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$283
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 21 million

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,365
N/A
N/A
$2,535
Settled
No
polymarket

21M+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 35 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,287
N/A
N/A
$3,884
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 50 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,909
N/A
N/A
$2,184
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 40 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,155
N/A
N/A
$2,155
Settled
No
polymarket

24M+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,334
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 25 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,949
N/A
N/A
$1,617
Settled
No
polymarket

27M+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34M+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Description

This group forecasts the number of views the #1 movie on Netflix will receive in a given week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 data released each Tuesday, reflecting the previous week's viewership. Markets ask whether the #1 movie will exceed specific view thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers a range of thresholds all resolving on a single date, while Polymarket offers individual thresholds with a delayed resolution fallback.Hero tip: Account for the potential for a delayed Netflix update when trading Polymarket markets. Kalshi's multiple thresholds provide more granular trading opportunities.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Asks if the #1 movie has at least X million views, resolving based on the Tuesday update, with a fallback to 'Other' if the update is delayed. "Question: Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least [X] million views this week?"
  • Kalshi: Offers multiple markets with different view thresholds (6M, 9M, etc.), all resolving on September 15, 2026, based on the Netflix chart. "If the #1 Movie on Netflix has at least [X] million views on the chart published on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie has a views figure greater than or equal to the specified amount, according to Netflix. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the view count of the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. This market will not consider hours viewed. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the highest-ranked movie on Netflix's Global "Movies | English" weekly chart, as published on September 15, 2026, achieves specified viewership thresholds. All markets share the same secondary rules, focusing exclusively on the count of "Views"—distinct from hours viewed—of the top movie. The relevant chart reflects data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's Tuesday update. No endorsement from Netflix is implied, and all references serve descriptive purposes only. Each market resolves to "Yes" if the #1 movie meets or exceeds its unique numerical threshold (ranging from 6 million to 50 million views); otherwise, it resolves to "No."

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often outperform traditional analyst forecasts. This is because they aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, incentivizing participants to provide accurate predictions. Analysts may be subject to biases or limited information, whereas this market benefits from a diverse range of perspectives and continuous updating as new data becomes available. While analyst reports offer valuable qualitative insights, the quantitative probabilities expressed in this market provide a more dynamic and potentially more accurate assessment of the likely outcome. The current 24-hour volume is $6,854.