TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 15 million
- Kalshi
At least 15 million - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Aug 3, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of the most popular movie on Netflix for a specific week, focusing on how many times it was viewed. The outcome depends on whether the view count meets certain thresholds, providing insight into viewer engagement with top streaming content.
Kalshi
The event determines whether the number of views for the #1 Movie on Netflix's Global "Movies | English" chart for the week ending the Sunday before August 4, 2026, meets or exceeds specified thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different view count threshold, ranging from 6 million to 50 million views. All markets share the same secondary rules, which clarify that "views" refers to the count of individual viewings rather than total viewing hours, and that the Netflix charts are updated on Tuesdays. The markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart publication, and neither the event nor the markets imply any endorsement from Netflix. The resolution of each market is binary, resolving to "Yes" if the specified threshold is met and "No" otherwise.
Frequently asked questions
Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which may rely on surveys or industry trends, prediction market odds reflect the collective wisdom of traders who buy and sell contracts on this market. Currently, the odds suggest a specific view of expected views, which can diverge from or align with published analyst predictions depending on new data or sentiment shifts.
This market resolves around Aug 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final numbers will be determined by official Netflix view counts for the week, and the market will settle based on that verified data.
Key signals that could shift this market include weekly Netflix view reports, media coverage of the top movie, changes in viewer behavior due to new releases or recommendations, and any public statements from Netflix officials. Unexpected surges or drops in viewership driven by trending topics or platform updates may also cause rapid price movements.
