TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 9 million
- Kalshi
At least 9 million - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 20, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the viewership performance of the top-ranked English-language movie on Netflix's global weekly charts for the week ending Sunday, July 20, 2026, as published on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Resolution is based on the view count (not hours viewed) reported by Netflix for that #1 movie.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the number of views accumulated by the #1 ranked movie on Netflix's Global 'Movies | English' weekly chart for the week ending the Sunday prior to the chart publication date of July 21, 2026. The metric tracked is views only, excluding hours viewed. Netflix updates its charts on Tuesdays, so the market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, July 20, 2026. The event resolves based on which view threshold the #1 movie meets or exceeds, with thresholds ranging from 6 million to 50 million views. This product is not endorsed by Netflix and references to Netflix are descriptive only.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader behavior rather than relying on static models. While entertainment analysts may publish viewership estimates based on historical data and marketing spend, traders here continuously update prices as new information emerges—such as release timing, critical reception, or competing releases. The market's dynamic pricing can reveal early signals that formal forecasts miss, though both approaches offer complementary perspectives on Netflix viewership expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different viewership ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract reflects the probability that the #1 movie will achieve a specific view count, with prices ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents per share. Traders profit by correctly predicting which range will materialize, and the bid-ask spread tightens as volume increases and consensus strengthens around likely outcomes.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2026, once the weekly viewership data for Netflix's #1 movie becomes available and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual view count reported for that week's leading title. Traders' positions settle based on which viewership bracket the final number falls into, with payouts distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the range.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market: major film releases or delays that alter Netflix's top-ranked content, unexpected critical or audience reception changes, competing platform releases, and real-time viewership reports from industry trackers. Marketing campaigns or celebrity news tied to the #1 movie can also drive trading activity. Additionally, broader streaming trends—such as subscriber growth or seasonal viewing patterns—may influence trader expectations about weekly viewership levels. Early partial data releases or Netflix announcements about content performance can trigger significant repricing.
