TOTAL VOLUME:
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2,388,728,490
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$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
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events
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2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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61%
At least 9 million
- Kalshi
At least 9 million - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Closed: Jul 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Netflix publishes weekly viewing charts every Tuesday for English-language movies globally. This event tracks how many individual views the #1-ranked movie accumulates during the week ending Sunday, July 13, 2026, as reported on the chart published Tuesday, July 14, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the view count of the top-ranked movie on Netflix's Global English-language weekly chart published on July 14, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The metric tracked is total views (not hours viewed). Multiple resolution thresholds are established at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 25, 30, 35, 40, and 50 million views. Each threshold represents a separate Yes/No outcome: the market resolves Yes if the #1 movie reaches or exceeds that specific view count, and No otherwise. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 13, 2026, the day before chart publication, to prevent trading on information released after market close.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information about which film will hold Netflix's top spot. Analyst forecasts, by contrast, typically rely on historical viewership patterns, release timing, and genre popularity. This market often diverges from traditional media predictions because traders incorporate breaking news, social media momentum, and subscriber behavior signals that analysts may lag in capturing. Direct comparison is difficult since analysts rarely publish specific viewership forecasts, but this market's odds represent a continuous, incentive-aligned estimate of the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different viewership ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome's price reflects the collective belief of active traders, with bid-ask spreads tightening as volume increases. Traders profit by correctly predicting the final viewership count, incentivizing accurate pricing. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery and allows participants to enter or exit positions at any time before resolution.
This market resolves around Jul 14, 2026, once Netflix's official viewership data for the week becomes publicly available. The outcome is determined by the verified view count for the #1 ranked movie on the platform during that period. Resolution is confirmed once the figure is verifiable from credible public reporting or Netflix's own disclosures. Traders should monitor Netflix announcements and entertainment news outlets for the final weekly rankings and viewership totals.
Major catalysts include new movie releases that could dethrone the current #1 film, subscriber growth announcements, and Netflix's weekly viewership reports. Celebrity news, viral social media trends, and award season momentum can drive unexpected viewership spikes. Marketing campaigns and platform algorithm changes also influence which titles gain prominence. Additionally, competitive streaming releases from rivals may fragment audience attention. Traders should track entertainment news, Netflix's official communications, and social sentiment to anticipate shifts in the top movie's viewership trajectory.
