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404,028
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At least 15 million
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At least 15 million - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Netflix publishes weekly viewing charts every Tuesday for English-language movies globally. This event tracks how many individual views the #1 ranked movie accumulates during the week ending Sunday, June 29, 2026, as reported on the chart published Tuesday, July 7, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the view count of the top-ranked movie on Netflix's Global English-language weekly chart published on July 7, 2026, which reports data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The metric tracked is total views (distinct from hours viewed). Multiple resolution thresholds apply: the event resolves Yes if the #1 movie achieves at least 6 million, 9 million, 12 million, 15 million, 18 million, 21 million, 25 million, 30 million, 35 million, 40 million, or 50 million views. Each threshold represents a separate market outcome. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, July 6, 2026, one day before chart publication, to prevent trading on known information.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from a diverse crowd rather than relying on a single expert opinion. While entertainment analysts may publish viewership predictions based on historical trends and marketing spend, this market reflects live trader conviction—meaning odds can shift rapidly when new data emerges or when unexpected cultural moments drive viewing behavior. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more or less bullish than the consensus, offering a complementary perspective on what Netflix's #1 movie might achieve.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit buy and sell orders at their chosen odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread between the highest bid and lowest ask reflects market liquidity and disagreement about the likely viewership outcome. As new information surfaces—such as Netflix's own reporting or industry commentary—traders adjust their positions, and the price naturally converges toward what the crowd believes is the true probability. Your entry and exit prices depend on the live order book at the moment you trade.
This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final viewership count for the #1 movie during the specified week will be compared against the prediction range, and traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout. Until that date, odds will fluctuate as new information becomes available and traders reassess their positions based on emerging signals about viewer engagement and Netflix's performance metrics.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market: Netflix's official weekly top-10 rankings and viewership announcements, major entertainment news (awards buzz, celebrity scandals, or competing releases), social media trends and word-of-mouth momentum, and any platform changes affecting how Netflix measures or reports views. Industry reports on streaming subscriber growth or churn can also influence expectations. Additionally, real-world events—such as a lead actor's publicity or a cultural moment tied to the film—may drive unexpected viewing surges or declines, causing traders to rapidly reprice their positions.
