TOTAL VOLUME:
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$126,590,312
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
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30,277
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2,685
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5
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39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 30 million
- Kalshi
At least 30 million - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jun 29, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Netflix publishes weekly viewing charts every Tuesday for English-language movies globally. This event tracks how many individual views the #1-ranked movie accumulates during the week ending Sunday, June 29, 2026, as reported on the chart published Tuesday, June 30, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the view count of the top-ranked movie on Netflix's Global English-language weekly chart published on June 30, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The metric tracked is total views (not hours viewed). Multiple resolution thresholds are established at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 25, 30, 35, 40, and 50 million views. Each threshold represents a separate Yes/No outcome: the market resolves Yes if the #1 movie reaches or exceeds that specific view count, and No otherwise. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on June 29, 2026, the day before chart publication, to prevent trading on information released after market closure.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior and financial incentives. While entertainment analysts may rely on historical patterns and industry reports, this market prices in live betting signals from participants with direct exposure to the outcome. Analysts typically publish weekly or monthly viewership estimates based on sampling data, whereas prediction markets update continuously. The two approaches can converge or diverge depending on whether new information—such as surprise releases or platform algorithm changes—reaches traders faster than formal analyst updates.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit buy and sell orders at their chosen price points. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Shares trade between 0 and 100, with the midpoint reflecting the crowd's consensus probability. As new information about Netflix viewership emerges—such as real-time engagement metrics or competing releases—traders adjust their bids and asks, moving the price. The spread between buy and sell orders tightens or widens based on conviction and liquidity, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at market or limit prices.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will reflect the actual view count for the #1 movie on Netflix during the specified week, as reported by Netflix or independent tracking sources. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout once the data is published and verified. The resolution window closes shortly after the week ends, allowing time for official viewership figures to be released and cross-checked.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market. Netflix algorithm changes or promotional pushes for specific titles may boost viewership for the #1 movie, attracting bullish traders. Competing releases on rival platforms or theatrical debuts can cannibalize views, moving prices downward. Real-time engagement metrics, social media trends, and critical reviews influence trader sentiment. Unexpected subscriber growth or churn also impacts overall platform viewing volume. Major cultural events or celebrity news tied to a film can drive sudden spikes in interest, causing sharp price movements as traders react to new information about likely viewership.
