TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 12 million
- Kalshi
At least 12 million - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 23, 2026
Closed: Jun 22, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Netflix publishes weekly viewing charts every Tuesday for content in the Global English-language Movies category. This event tracks the total number of individual views (not hours watched) that the #1 ranked movie accumulates during the week ending Sunday, June 22, 2026, as reported on the chart published Tuesday, June 23, 2026.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by the view count of the #1 ranked movie on Netflix's Global English-language Movies weekly chart published on June 23, 2026, which reports data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The metric tracked is the total number of views (distinct from hours viewed). The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on June 22, 2026, the day before chart publication. Resolution outcomes are based on whether the #1 movie's view count meets or exceeds specified thresholds: 6 million, 9 million, 12 million, 15 million, 18 million, 21 million, 25 million, 30 million, 35 million, 40 million, or 50 million views.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this market reflect real-money trader conviction, which often diverges from traditional analyst estimates. While entertainment analysts may rely on historical patterns and studio projections, market participants incorporate breaking news, social media momentum, and competing releases in real time. The current implied probability on the top outcome provides a direct, incentive-aligned signal that can validate or challenge published forecasts. Comparing these two sources—market odds versus analyst commentary—reveals where expert opinion and trader sentiment align or diverge most sharply.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares tied to specific viewership outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on the resolution value, and the bid-ask spread reflects real-time supply and demand. As new information surfaces—such as Netflix's weekly Top 10 reports or competitor releases—traders adjust their positions, moving the price. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at market rates throughout the trading window.
This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, once the week's final viewership figures become available and verifiable. The outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting on Netflix's official viewership data and entertainment industry sources. Traders should monitor Netflix's weekly Top 10 announcements and third-party tracking services as the resolution date approaches. The exact view count for the #1 movie during the specified week will determine which outcome bracket is correct and how payouts are distributed.
Major catalysts include Netflix's mid-week Top 10 updates, which often reveal surprising shifts in viewership momentum. New movie releases—both on Netflix and competing platforms—can dramatically redirect viewer attention. Social media trends, celebrity news tied to the #1 film, and word-of-mouth reviews all influence weekly performance. Additionally, Netflix algorithm changes or promotional pushes can spike views unexpectedly. Traders should track entertainment news outlets, streaming data analysts, and Netflix's own announcements to anticipate moves before they're reflected in market prices.
