TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
More than 1 week
- Kalshi
More than 1 week - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Closed: Jun 30, 12:12 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether a song by Olivia Rodrigo achieves and maintains the #1 position on the Billboard 200 chart for consecutive weeks. The market resolves affirmatively if the song sustains chart dominance for an extended period, indicating significant commercial success and sustained popularity.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by tracking consecutive weeks that "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" by Olivia Rodrigo maintains the #1 position on the Billboard 200. The market closes the following 10am ET after either the achievement occurs or the streak ends. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific threshold: more than 1 week, more than 2 weeks, more than 3 weeks, more than 4 weeks, more than 5 weeks, or more than 6 weeks of consecutive #1 placement. Only the first streak the song achieves at #1 is considered for resolution purposes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional analyst estimates or entertainment industry forecasts. While analysts may rely on historical chart performance or industry commentary, prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of participants with financial incentive to be accurate. For this entertainment event, comparing Kalshi odds to published entertainment forecasts or expert predictions can reveal whether the market is pricing in factors analysts have overlooked or underweighted.
This market resolves on Dec 30, 2026. Resolution hinges on official chart data and the specific definition of what constitutes a consecutive week at number one for this entertainment release. Traders should review the exact resolution criteria in the market terms to understand edge cases, such as whether ties or partial weeks count toward the final tally. Once the resolution date passes and official data is confirmed, the market settles to the correct outcome and payouts are distributed accordingly.
Chart performance updates each week will be the primary driver of odds movement. Strong streaming numbers, radio play, or social media momentum could extend the song's chart run and shift odds toward higher week counts. Conversely, new competing releases or declining listener engagement could shorten its tenure at number one. Major media coverage, award nominations, or viral moments tied to the artist or song could also influence market expectations. Traders should monitor weekly chart releases and entertainment news closely for catalysts affecting the final outcome.
