TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
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469,827
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MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Below 53
- Kalshi
Below 53 - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Feb 1, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 53 Senate seats in the 120th Congress?
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Description
This market evaluates the composition of the U.S. Senate following the 2026 midterm elections, specifically tracking the number of seats held by the Democratic party as of early 2027. The market resolves affirmatively regardless of the final Democratic seat count, effectively making it a certainty bet on the Senate's partisan balance.
Kalshi
If the Democratic party has below 53 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 53 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 54 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 55 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 56 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has exactly 57 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Democratic party has above 57 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a probability distribution for the number of Senate seats held by Democrats that may differ from traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market reflects a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on informed traders’ collective judgment. Historical data shows that prediction markets can sometimes offer a more accurate forecast than polls, especially when accounting for uncertainty and potential shifts in voter sentiment. This market provides a unique perspective on the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the final Senate composition is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant authorities following the Midterm elections. The number of seats held by the Democratic party will be counted, and the market will settle based on that final count. Traders should monitor official election results as they are reported to understand how this market is tracking towards resolution.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic news, shifts in polling data, significant campaign fundraising reports, and unexpected candidate endorsements could all influence trader sentiment and thus, the market prices. Any breaking news related to key Senate races, such as a candidate dropping out or a scandal emerging, would likely cause volatility. Furthermore, broader political events and national debates could also shift perceptions and move this market as traders react to new information.
