How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?

On Kalshi, the primary contract asks whether there will be more than two major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, currently trading at 75.0% probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contract is priced as a binary yes/no outcome, with traders buying and selling shares that reflect their belief in whether the season will exceed that threshold. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand as new information about climate patterns, sea surface temperatures, and seasonal indicators emerges. The market remains active through Dec 2, 2026, when the final hurricane count determines settlement.

The market resolves on Dec 2, 2026, marking the official end of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The outcome is determined by the total count of major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in the Atlantic basin during 2026. Official data from the National Hurricane Center provides the authoritative record used to settle all related contracts. Traders should monitor seasonal updates and final hurricane counts as the year progresses to understand how the market may shift before resolution.